Business-Cycle

Some things about Net Neutrality being threatened that I haven’t seen many comments on:

- The OOOONNLY people benefiting from this possible rollback are corporate shareholders. 

- The removal of NN would result in few if any new jobs whatsoever, so any argument that it would help the economy is null and void (btw, we’re not actually in a recession anymore, in case anyone still thought that. The US’s economy, while it has plateaued in actual growth at about 2%, it’s actually pretty high in the business cycle.)

- Limitation and partisan censorship is a major concern (I lied that one is what everyone is talking about)

- In fact it will HURT online businesses, which will damage the small business sector in general.

- And last but not least: It is going to have a majorly negative impact on the education system. I just finished highschool in May and let me tell you, even rural schools are getting more and more technology and internet dependent. Students frequently, if not regularly, are sent home with online assignments. How can students possibly be expected to finish an online homework assignment if they can’t even remotely begin to afford internet? This is already an issue in rural and poor and POC dominated areas, and should Net Neutrality be removed and access to the internet be placed back into money hungry corporate hands, it will be an even more massive and far worse problem that will only perpetuate low education levels in these areas. what if their assignment requires research on a website that their partisan provider has decided to censor? You get a zero. Especially if you’re a college student that can’t afford another $150 a month just to get ok-ish internet speeds. 

- This gives me great concern for marginalized and outcast kids. The internet has been one of the very, very few places where LGBT+ and POC children and people in general can go and feel safe and accepted and loved and celebrated for how/who they are. Imagine that that’s the ONLY place you feel safe and okay and then that gets taken away from you. Early teen suicide rates are already high enough. 

This is all just a disgusting money grab by the GOP and other politicians who are invested in cable and cellular companies. Call or message your congressional representatives to oppose. Drown them in resistance. I’ve already found several posts with links that let you do that. 

This lyric is one I think we’re sleeping on a bit. 

Just like everyone else here before me

He understands more than most people think the business and life cycle of a band like One Direction and the people in it. Especially when you take into consideration that he felt like he wasn’t worthy of it for such a long time. 

But this lyric really strikes me as shrewd and self-aware. He knows how his fans see him, how the industry sees him and how the public at large sees him. He’s “the guy from the one band” and his life is planned beyond his control in most ways. 

But it’s only half his story. 

(The other half…..out there…….walking around in floral pants.)

anonymous asked:

Hi Keaton, I've been writing poetry for a while, reading around during leisure time, and I've tried to incorporate some of what I've learned about poetry into my work, but my poetry still absolutely, tremendously flops. Any advice?

i like to define poetry as the act of taking an abstract emotion and giving it a concrete form. to do this at all is a difficult task. to do it well can feel near impossible sometimes! the fact that you’re showing up and putting in the effort deserves praise. be proud of yourself for trying. i know i’m proud of you.

when it comes to figuring out what makes a poem work, i think the best example is ezra pound’s ‘in a station of the metro.’ you know the one– “The apparition of these faces in the crowd; / Petals on a wet, black bough.” it contains several things that highlight what we find keep us coming back to poetry: brevity, figurative language, and implication.

a defining characteristic of poetry is its economy of language, to say as much as we can in as few words as possible, so we are constantly pulling out our metaphorical paring knives and trimming our poems down to give each word impact. the length of the pound’s ‘metro’ speaks for itself. within the title and two lines, it manages to create an entire image of the parisian subway, one which has struck and stuck with its readers for over a century.

but why does it strike us? for starters, there is its metaphor. the heaving underground crowd gets transformed into a small part of a larger system of nature, petals torn from flowers, small compared to the tree on which they’re plastered, and smaller still when compared to the phenomenon of a rainstorm. bright white and shining against the dark trunk and damp cold of the air.

but the people haven’t literally become flower petals, so what is the language trying to imply here? you picture how these petals are ripped by a past rain away from their parent flowers and how they cling to the branches, and you know that in spite of their fragility, whatever hardships they might face, people are enduringly beautiful. then there’s pound’s use of the word apparition, which possesses a double meaning: apparition as in to suddenly appear into sight as the train doors open, and apparition as in ghostly. this moment is sudden, brief. people move through the metro station and you can see them, but you’ll never know each of them fully. there’s a sense of death in comparing people to ghosts, but then the flower metaphor creates a sense of regeneration. through the distance of a century, the crowd captured in this poem is long gone, and yet crowds just like that one move through the metro every day, are in the metro right now, continuing this cycle of busy, wondrous city life. and a century from now, the crowds will still be there, churning.

'metro’ strikes us because so much is going on underneath its surface. it’s a meditation on the transient, shifting, and awe-inspiring nature of human life. the poem never once takes the time to say this out loud, but the meaning is there, the part of the iceberg under the water, waiting for us to dive.

but this is just an analysis of elements i appreciate about poetry. ultimately my advice to you is this: keep writing. make those rough drafts and take the time to shape them into better drafts. write enough and you’ll find your style, you’ll figure out how to shape images the way you want, you’ll learn how to get that emotional impact. and don’t be afraid to write sloppily. all writing is good writing because it means you brought into existence something that wasn’t there before. hope this helps! all my best wishes for your poetry

She’s No Angel (Part 7)

Originally posted by trashwilldo

A/N: Happy MAY THE FOURTH BE WITH YOU & REVENGE OF THE FIFTH! I  I’m watching the Original trilogy like ‘That’s Kylo’s mama!’ ‘That’s Kylo’s grandpappy!’ ‘Han don’t do it!’ Anyway, just a few things: I’m tired (always), this chapter is extremely long! I can’t cut it. You guys need it because it lays the foundation for Part 8 ( I’ll try to make that one short. It’s so long I feel like no one is going to read it. (IT’S WORTH IT PLEASE DON’T LET MY SLEEP DEPRIVED SELF REGRET THIS). I’m tired, didn’t proofread and was tired of reading this anyway. Anyway, without much further ado . . .

Part 1  Part 2  Part 3  Part 4  Part 5  Part 6  Part 8


Lucky: 1. Matt/Kylo: 1.


When you woke up, you were still in your gown and your updo was now down. You yawned and made your way to the refresher. When the light turned on, you were startled at the sight you saw before you. Your hair was a wild mess and your make up was in all the wrong places. Grabbing a wet towel you began to wipe your face clean. Wiping brought back memories of last night. You started to look more like the person you knew and not this display where all eyes landed. As you removed your lipstick, you thought about the kiss from last night. Your lips twitched in a smile. You can’t believe you kissed Lucky. ‘Did you like him?’ You never really thought about you and Lucky as you AND Lucky.

Keep reading

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College and Housing Bubbles

anonymous asked:

So I think I more or less understand the concept of wage is theft, but I'm curious how it applies to small business owners who start from nothing. I'll use myself as an example since I understand it best and I think it's closest to what I's wondering. I'm a creative, my product is consumed because people like my work, it serves no purpose other than enjoyment. I started by buying a few basic tools, making something, selling it, buying new tools. (1. Cont)

(cont from 1) I’ve built my business to its current point in this way, using the capital produced from my own labor. Now such a point is far away, but if I at some point needed someone to help me with my work to keep up with demand, assuming we do the same amount of work and I pay them a living wage, is my making a profit still theft? Considering that I made all the investments to acquire the means of production, both in labor and in personal capital. (2 cont.)

(cont from 2) It seems like at that point, if we were compensated the same for the fruit of our labor, that it would be discounting my investment of time and labor. I’m not sure how to frame this as a question but hopefully you understand what I’m getting at? Thank you.

———————————————

Yes, you making profit through the labor of another person is still a form of theft. The person you hire would need to generate more through their labor than you end up paying them, and the difference between those two things would be your accrued profit. Everything you described at the beginning of your ask is a needless complication created by the capitalist economic system – capitalism demands that you invest, compete, reinvest, compete, and so on, and a person from a lower income bracket risking their money in a scenario like that can be rough. But that doesn’t mean, when you hire someone, that you profiting off of someone else’s labor isn’t theft like all other examples of capitalist exploitation. You might have much more difficulty than a big business capitalist, and the exploitation might not be as extreme, but the labor/surplus appropriation/profit process is still the same. 

I understand your points, and I’m glad you can at least empathize with the central point of capitalist wage theft. But here’s my question to you, Anon:

You recognize that bosses accumulate wealth off the backs of their workers, and you also seem to recognize that capitalism essentially forces you to exploit another person’s labor if you want your small business to stay viable. If you want your business to grow and be more secure, you’ll likely have to exploit more and more workers over time. With that in mind, why support capitalism at all? It’s a system that reproduces and rewards the exploitation of labor, essentially requiring that all bosses dominate workers in some capacity just to stay in business. It’s a vicious cycle and you seem to understand it.

The system is toxic and we need to build the socialist alternative. You mentioned you enjoy creating things for other people, Anon – what if I told you that socialism was about settling the necessities of society through democratic control of utilities, distributing according to social needs and individual interests, building up to a scenario where individuals can then put their creative labor to use however they see fit after those material faculties are covered? We’re fast approaching a point where technology could weed out human labor en masse, so why not take control of the automation and divvy up the otherwise necessary work among communities, in turn cutting down the work week and freeing up our time for things we enjoy doing? You get rid of that poisonous “invest, exploit, compete, reinvest, exploit, compete” cycle and you remove enjoyable labor from that cycle, thus simplifying it. You would be able to put your creativity to use for other people all you want, free from the realm of economic necessity and labor exploitation. 

A more fleshed-out picture of this socialist alternative will start to take shape as more people jump on board to that initial vision. We need people actively building this alternative in their communities and declaring it in political manifestos. I have an undying faith in the human condition, leading me to know that we’d be able to pull this vision off once people understand the basic premise. Question a system that demands that you exploit other people’s labor in order to stay in business, Anon – maybe, just maybe, that system is detrimental to the human condition. 

-Daividh

coca-cola-official  asked:

I'm planning on studying economics in college, but I know that the austrian perspective isn't taught, or even taken seriously in most academic circles. What do you do as an economics major when most everything taught in mainstream economics is garbage?

One, actually look into the faculty in your school’s econ department. The dog whistle you are looking for is “free-market friendly.” My school’s econ department was surprisingly diverse. Only two of the professors were avowed Marxists!

2, while you aren’t going to be learning Austrian Business Cycle theory in Macroeconomics courses (anymore than you can expect to be taught Randian Objectivism in a philosophy class), much of what you learn in microeconomics courses will be pretty compatible, and the professors that volunteer to teach microecon courses will tend to be free market friendly.

Third, Economics departments tend to be pretty small. Lower level classes especially tend to be populated by finance and business majors, with actual Econ majors forming a minority. This means that class participation tends to be infrequent, and very appreciated when it actually occurs. Make sure yours is positive.

I’ll tell you now, be humble, because as libertarians, we tend to assume (reasonably so) that people who disagree with us do not understand economics. This is not a good position to take when debating people with advanced degrees in economics, no matter what they say. My liberal professors loved me, though that was partially because during office hours (which I frequently took advantage of for the declared purpose of “bugging my favorite professors”) I delighted in making fun of other libertarians for not being my kind of libertarian, and even Marxists can sympathize with that. Above all, remember that you’re not in class to debate or educate your professors (though of course other students are fair game, but remember that you’ll be encountering them repeatedly). Those moments should be rare treats, kept light hearted, and saved for after the midterm.

A/O/B  Masterlist

+ vanilla sweet Universe
despite the fact that zayn’s an alpha, liam gives him a chance to prove himself worthy of the omega’s affections.
(or all four parts to this series combined for easier reading).

+ Alpha pride

Liam was desperate, Louis’d say. He was desperate for a mate and love and someone to take care of him but he wouldn’t do something like this. He was respondible and smart and new the rights from the wrongs, ups from downs, ins from outs. He knew enrolling himself in Alpha classes was wrong, which is why he’d never do it.(Except he sorta already did.)Or Liam, an omega, inroles into alpha only classes by accident (not really).

+ Growl

Zayn’s having trouble accepting his place in the pack.Liam doesn’t know how he ended up the leader.Louis just want’s Harry.Harry wants to have his cake and eat it too.Niall is to busy getting some to care.And a lot more in between.

+ Yet all along i knew we’d be fine 

Zayn Malik and Liam Payne decide to take an example from their fellow bandmates Louis and Harry, and confess their relationship to the world. A few happy days re-encountered, a couple of laughs, then BAM! Zayn’s on his heat. And well; It’s highly predictable what happens next!
{Just a one shot

+ With this ring 

Liam is a Sensitive New Age Dom (SNAD) who hangs out with impudent Subs and has everything in life going on for him. Until he realizes his crazy-ass dad who was supposed to have fucked off years ago has left him with another mess to clean up - an arranged marriage to a Sub who has, terrifyingly, quote unquote, spent all his life learning how to please him.

+ these lovers eyes

A/B/O verse where Liam is an alpha, Josh, Niall, Louis, and Harry are his betas and an unlikely little omega stumbles into the picture.

+ omega zayn

series

+ breaking the silver chain

The omegas of the group, Louis and Zayn, slip security and disappear leaving behind a very angry alpha Liam and two worried betas, Harry and Niall. When Paul finally catches up to the two trouble makers they are in for a serious lecture from their alpha; however, when the two boys get back on the bus Louis’ sass comes out in full form. Alpha Liam is having none of that.This is 4,000 words of dirty, dirty, filthy smut and I’m probably going to hell.Also the title is shit and I’m sorry.

+ Flushing pills

Liam arrives at an empty home and tries to hold off his heat by trying to distract himself. Dinner will probably not be edible tonight.

+ breathe 

Because everything started and ended with a deep breath.“You don’t understand, you and your scent that it’s everywhere, making me so helpless and I just…want to stop breathing.”
“It’s you who doesn’t understand Zayn,if you ever stop breathing,I’m going to stop too, because there’s not a chance I could live in a world without you.”
“I hate you. You ruined my life.”
“I know. I’m sorry.”

+ Vanilla sweet 2.0

liam’s keen on satisfying zayn’s needs.

+ black treacle

Liam wasn’t gay. She wasn’t. She liked dick. She’d never seen one in person, but she’d watched enough porn during her heats to have a pretty good idea of what they looked like, kinda scary but well, that’s just how they looked like. She liked them. She was supposed to, right? She was an omega, was supposed to want an alpha, a male alpha, to stuff her full of his pups and make her his good girl. So why the fuck was she fingering herself to the girl next door?
(or the fic where liam doesn’t like girls and zayn will punch whoever looks at liam in the throat and harry just wants zayn to fuck her and niall just wants to have a simple date with his girlfriend and louis just wants to fool around // genderswap!

+ the first meeting

Zayn’s out at the theater with Harry trying to figure out if he wants to get popcorn or a big bag of Sour Patch Kids. Harry points out this smaller boy across the theater with a buzz cut. Zayn feels a lurch in his stomach at the sight, and finds himself putting up little fight to Harry’s suggestions to him to introduce himself.Niall has finally dragged Liam out of his room to see the latest installment of Captain America, even though Liam refused to see the first one. Liam didn’t believe his best friend when he insisted the movies were as good as the comics Liam kept his nose buried in. Niall goes to get popcorn (Liam prefers Sour Patch Kids over the too-salty movie theater popcorn) and Liam finds himself approached by a stranger. This stranger fumbles and trips through a less-than-smooth introduction that leaves Liam’s heart fluttering.

+ Needing you and your ridiculous motorcycle

Liam, in his polo shirts and clean jeans, lives a rather sheltered life. He’s not privy to the “obscene” (that’s his parents’ word not his) fun he’s heard people talk about. His life is a continuous cycle of business “tea parties” (those are his words), friends with their noses in the air, and the same alpha personality with different faces. All he wanted was someone who wasn’t arrogant and actually thought he was worth more than a few kids who would then grow up to have their exact same idea?Now, Liam didn’t come to this revelation all by his lonesome because he used to be one of those kids who refused to think for themselves and just listened to their parents. To be fair, he had no idea his parents couldn’t see past the end of their noses. He was perfectly content dreaming of Connor Hawkins, his father’s partner’s son who had all the aspects of a Prince Charming (and would be coming into a rather large amount of money when his grandfather finally kicked it (those were his mother’s words exactly)). To give credit where credit is due, Zayn really did most of the work turning Liam to the world of Think For Yourself and “obscene” fun. Now, and Zayn actually prefers it this way, they’re a secretly-mad-for-you couple.

+ zayn baby

Zayn is almost 17 and yet to go through his first heat. Whenever his boyfriend, 21 year old Liam, goes into rut he has to endure it alone. Harry and Louis try to warn him, but it gets harder for Zayn to stay away. The first chapter of a two part sequel to Louis Love.

+Distress

Liam is an Alpha who’s too kind for his own good. Zayn is a reluctant Omega surviving on a cocktail of suppressants, drugs and alcohol. Throw in needy basketcase Omega Harry into the mix, and it is all very distressing indeed 

+ Addicted to Ziam 100%

A collection of original and prompted Ziam stories. Hope you enjoy, and feel free to tell me what you want to see!

+ when you’re around me, i’m radioactive

basically, zayn is in heat in a grocery store and liam comes to the rescue and they fuck

+ Needing You and Your Ridiculous Motorcycle

Liam, in his polo shirts and clean jeans, lives a rather sheltered life. He’s not privy to the “obscene” (that’s his parents’ word not his) fun he’s heard people talk about. His life is a continuous cycle of business “tea parties” (those are his words), friends with their noses in the air, and the same alpha personality with different faces. All he wanted was someone who wasn’t arrogant and actually thought he was worth more than a few kids who would then grow up to have their exact same idea?Now, Liam didn’t come to this revelation all by his lonesome because he used to be one of those kids who refused to think for themselves and just listened to their parents. To be fair, he had no idea his parents couldn’t see past the end of their noses. He was perfectly content dreaming of Connor Hawkins, his father’s partner’s son who had all the aspects of a Prince Charming (and would be coming into a rather large amount of money when his grandfather finally kicked it (those were his mother’s words exactly)). To give credit where credit is due, Zayn really did most of the work turning Liam to the world of Think For Yourself and “obscene” fun. Now, and Zayn actually prefers it this way, they’re a secretly-mad-for-you couple.

+ With Utmost Endearment

In the minds of entrepreneur Zayn Malik, he will never be enough. His abstract paintings will never be perfect, he will never find out who is real mother is, or even try to calm the waters down with his adoptive mother and well, his…man friend? If one shall be called a lady friend, why is it so impossibly odd to call one a man friend? He would never know.

Louis has always known that as a lawyer, he would never, ever have something amazing and dangerous happen to him. Until he meets an assassin who’s name cannot be permanent, with sleek green eyes that never lie with a grin that makes all the girls faint.Niall has two hunky alphas who never get a break. They are erotic, sexual men, but they are not so sexual in terms of activity or just, imagination. They fuck when they want to. They eat when they want to. They love Niall when they want to. Niall needs to find a way to get some priorities etched into his husbands’ minds.Liam Payne has a dark side, we all do, but his dark side is something that can never be covered or fixed by love or blind affection. Will he ever find happiness?

+Ziam fuckathon

series of alpha / omega ziam 

+ The Boys Next Door

Liam Payne and Louis Tomlinson are cousins, who move to the small town Huntersville. Harry Styles and Zayn Malik have lived there their entire life. The town seems normal except for one little secret. It’s got more werewolves than humans. Liam, being a newly turned werewolf, joins their pack, meeting Harry and Zayn, the alpha and beta’s sons. The four become quick friends, but is that really all they are? Secrets unfold quickly and there might just be something in the air in Huntersville other than the dog smell.


Well, that sucks....

Hey y'all, you may have noticed that I haven’t been very active here, on Discord, or on AO3 lately. I’ve been busy at work as cycling season transitions into cyclocross, but I’ve also been having a lot of computer issues over the last several weeks, making it difficult to get writing done. I have a four-year-old laptop with a hard drive that was slowly dying–and today it died for good.

This is a tight spot for me financially as I work less during the fall and winter, and one of my cats will be having a procedure next month. It’s nothing serious, but it is expensive, and I do not have the spare cash to spend on a new computer.

At the moment, the only other device I have is my phone, and I hate typing on a screen when I sit down to write. I’m thinking of doing a fundraiser for a Netbook, something inexpensive but would have a keyboard for you know, actual writing of stories, only about $300 or so. I would offer short fic for donating. This post is just a feeler, testing out interest. If you like this, please share! Help get the word out so I can gauge whether or not a fundraiser would be worthwhile.

coldsaturn replied to your post “The Foxhole Court, Chapter 14 – Ohana Means Family (And Family Means…”

don’t worry, basically the entire fandom calls itself the foxhole court fandom xD that’s an interesting story involving us first foxes and the tragic problem of having TRK tag busy with the raven cycle fandom, and the all for the game busy with everything but books.

ahh I’ve heard about the raven cycle dilemma before! why must there be two gay YA novels with a raven king. sigh.

also “us first foxes”, so you’re the fandom grandpa, I’ve heard? [hamilton voice] look at where you are, look at where you started

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For the Federal Reserve to set interest rates and do it accurately would require for them to know exactly, to the penny, how to set the price of EVERY product on the market. It doesn’t stop there. The Fed would also need to know, to the penny, how to set correctly each single said product’s price in relation to EVERY other product on market. The odds of winning the lottery are higher!

Do you think this process can possibly equate to a sound economy or could it be the main reason why the economy experiences the business cycle, booms & busts, every few decades?

yes-siree-dodd  asked:

What are some good books to read on economics?

Here is my ‘economics’ shelf. I recommend all of these.

I apologize for the long post, and I hyperlinked when possible to the tag for my blog for each book (where I’ve posted excerpts and quotes so you can get an idea of the book). I think basically your question is answered in this first paragraph I’ve block-quoted. Everything else just just extra.

Books on Economics in General:

How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes and Economics in One Lesson are good introductory overviews about economics and economic principles in general. The former can be read in like an hour. The Bastiat Collection brings together essays from the great economist Frederic Bastiat which, despite being well over a century old are extremely easily read and impart a lot of economic wisdom. A lot of his stuff can be found online for free as well. Also Economic Controversies, while intimidating in it’s size (about 900 pages) and admittedly more difficult than the previously mentioned books, is still highly readable and will teach you an immense amount of economics. The economic journal articles contained in it cover the method of economics, the nature of economics, taxation, money, and just about every other controversy of economics. 

*

The rest are on more specific topics. Are the Rich Necessary? teaches a good deal of basic economic concepts in a very easily readable way by going through policy and popular economics issues. The kind of stuff you hear in everyday life and on tv a lot.

The Economics of Liberty and Making Economic Sense are both collections of very short Op-Ed sized pieces dealing with various economics and policy topics (trade, taxes, regulations, etc). There’s a ton of good stuff in there and they both cover a wide range of economic issues and questions.

Books on money and monetary policy I recommend are End the Fed, What has Government done to Our Money? (which is an essay really), The Gold Standard: Perspectives in the Austrian School (which is a collection of essays), The Inflation Crisis and How to Resolve It, and The Ethics of Money Production. Again, all of these are very easy. Nothing intimidating about them, but you’ll learn a lot.

Economic Facts and Fallacies uses economic concepts and statistical data to bust a lot of economic myths we hear these days (gender pay gap, income inequality stats, etc) . Markets and Minorities and Race and Economics do the same with regards to racial issues in economic policy (affirmative action, discrimination, the economic lot of minorities, etc). Depression, War, and Cold War is a collection of scholarly essays which again do a great deal in the way of dispelling common myths–the main myths busted in these essays are about the efficacy of the new deal and world war two in ending the great depression.

The Government Against the Economy and all of the books pictured above by Ludwig von Mises are all excellent and highly profitable reads about the market process and the destructive nature of various kinds of government intervention in the market.

The Conquest of Poverty and Man Vs. The Welfare State are great books using economics to examine how best to help the poorest in a given society, and how government programs have hindered that effort.

Where Keynes went Wrong and The Failure of the New Economics both are refutations of ‘Keynesian Economics’, which is currently the most influential brand of economics in all the central banks and government bureaus of the Earth. The former is a much easier read than the latter, but both are still no problem and very profitable reads.

Meltdown explains the ‘Austrian’ theory of the business  cycle and specifically applies it to the 2008 housing boom and bust. This is another one that you can read in a day and you’ll learn a lot from it.

Thanks to the Mises Institute a lot of these books are available free online through a google search and in print for very cheap. Thanks so much for asking for my input I appreciate that more than you know.

Impact of Depopulation on Future Economic Trends

Economists spend inordinate time gauging the business cycle that they believe drives the US economy. However, the real engine running in the background (and nearly entirely forgotten) is the population cycle. The positive population cycle is such a long running macro trend thousands of years in the offing that it’s taken for granted. It is wrongly assumed that upon every business cycle downturn, accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will ultimately spur greater demand and restart the business cycle once the excess capacity and inventories are drawn down. However, I contend that the population cycle has been the primary factor in ending each recession…and this most macro of cycles is now rolling over. Without this, America (nor the world) will truly emerge from the next recession…instead it will morph into an unending downward cycle of partial recoveries…contrary to all contemporary human experience.

The evidence for my contention begins with the 25-54yr/old US population, which peaked in December 2007 and remains below that peak ever since (this population is presently about 400k fewer than Dec of ‘07). However, total US full time employment is now 3.6 million above the previous peak in 2007. This 25-54 to FT employment relationship is now 1:1…just as it was in 1980 and 1970. 

Annual change in 25-54yr/old US population vs. annual change in total full time US employees. The macro population cycle provided millions of new adults (consumers) and their increased demand restarted the more frequent gyrations of the micro business cycles…until 2008 and again now in 2017. Some may take note that the Federal Reserve cost of money (the Federal Funds Rate in blue) generally followed the population cycle, only making some deviations for the business cycle along the way. 

But the change per 8 year periods of the 25-54yr/old population and total US full time employment turns out to be not so dissimilar. In fact, it’s a pretty nice correlation. 

And so, since population growth means so much…two differing views on where this population is headed. In red, the Census and in black, an unbiased view of growth based on the child bearing population, birth rates, and current and future immigration trends.

Why would I feel such confidence in a lowered estimate of growth? Check the ‘08 Census projection for the 0-24yr/old US population through 2050 (blue line, chart below) and the massive downgrade of growth by the 2014 projection update (red line). And it is still far too optimistic and the upcoming projection update will only further downgrade upcoming population growth, based on the ongoing declining birth rates combined with huge declines in illegal immigration since ‘09. 

Taking a look at the annual 15-64 population growth should be pretty telling. 2008 wasn’t a debt crisis…it was an end of an atypical period of abnormally high growth which so many had assumed was in fact “normal”. 

Charting the change in the core population of the US vs. full time employment. During each downturn in full time employment, the growth in the core population continued and eventually pulled the business cycle to a fresh start. However, as the population cycle slowed the downturns were deeper and recoveries slower due to minimal growth in demand from the population cycle. 

Focusing from the turn of the century 'til now, the downtrend of core population growth is very plain and the negative impact on the business cycle should also be easily understood. The expected Federal Reserve response is of course interest rate cuts to incent record quantities of new debt…to maintain the unsustainable present. The next economic downturn will see no buoying impact of the core population growth to exit the downturn. 

The population cycle of the broad core of the US (and in fact, that of the 0-64yr/old population) is now on the precipice of turning Japanese…also known as depopulating

The next business cycle recession will be unending and is very likely to run years into decades and perhaps a century or more. A declining population already indebted with record debt and zero interest rates will consume less…meaning overcapacity and excess inventories will never be fully cleared before the next downturn…and on and on and on. 

But the absence of a growing consumer base isn’t just a US issue…this is a global problem. The annual growth of the 0-64yr/old population of the combined OECD nations (most the EU, US, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Japan, S. Korea, Australia / New Zealand) plus China, Brazil, and Russia show the growth that has driven nearly all economic growth has come to an end…and begins declining from here on. And when importers are shrinking, exporters have no one to export to…and on and on and on. The depopulation we are now facing…not simply a demographic issue that so many believe.

“The president has very little effect on the economy. If you want to put blame or credit, the main person who influences the business cycle is the head of the Federal Reserve Bank.” - Robert Fogel was an American economic historian and scientist, and winner of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.