3lz 3t

The Lord of the Wedding Rings: The Return of the King - iguana’s 2017 HELLsinki Worlds recap

This is it guys, the last big competition before the Olympics. So much potential for great skates, great disasters and great distress; this competition did not fail to deliver. Nor did the announcers, who were screaming out names and scores as if it were a wrestling match. And it was, in one way or another. Albeit a sparklier one. For a brief couple of days, we thought Javier Fernandez was gonna win his 3rd consecutive World title and I almost had those memes ready but at the same time I knew coming from behind like a wrecking ball was Yuzuru Hanyu’s specialty. To nobody’s surprise Evgenia Medvedeva broke a record; to everyone’s surprise, she only broke it in the long program. Meanwhile, Wenjing Sui and Cong Han’s blues for koolk brought the pairs crown back to China and Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir purple rained on Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron’s parade. Let’s start the recap!

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Rin Nitaya || Winter Universiad2017, Short Program: Red Violin

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It’s the post about a russian baby girl who stands out in a world where team Tutberidze tanos every jumps in the second half of the programs. This girl actually skates, performs, has lovely expression. Has been doing it since she was at least 8 years old. She’s almost 11 now and her name is Kamila Valieva.

When I first saw her, she landed doubles and single axels and was the loveliest swan EVER. On her final poses she counted till five before breaking the character - so cute <3 She’s always been a good spinner and her upright positions are pretty impressive. Kamila started learning triples last year, it wasn’t an easy process but now by some miracle she has pretty solid 2a & 3s, 3lo and goddamn rippon lutz. Just a couple of days ago she won Russian National competition for the smallest age group (this fact actually promted me to make this post). There’re three parts there: elements, SP & FS. Kamila slayed elements where she showed +goe 3lz & 2a-3t, placed 3rd in the short and 1st in the free.

Kamila’s coaches are not big names at all in Russian singles - Natalia Dubinskaya and Stanislav Kovalev. And here’re Kamila’s programs avaliable online.  

  • 14-15 season: Russian Folk SP, The Swan FS (ICONIC)
  • 15-16 season: Cirque SP, Indian theme FS
  • 16-17 season: Hallelujah SP, The Witch FS 

craicblossom  asked:

Hi there! I've been seeing lots of posts with skating abbreviations. I've always loved figure skating however was never really interested in the terms until YoI came out. As someone newly interested in figure skating, can you explain the abbreviations and what they mean? (i.e. 4Lo, GOE,etc.) Thank you!

Hello~ Click on the “read more” for some common abbreviations. If we missed out any, feel free to let us know. ( ^ - ^   ) We also apologize in advance if there are any inaccuracies in this post.

You can also read our page on the figure skating scoring system to know more.  (  *  u  *  )

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broccoli-n-shrimps  asked:

have you seen the fancam of give me love at skate it forward? the jumps are looking pretty solid and the program is as exquisite as ever! do you'll think he'll keep it next season? after all, he might be doing at least one early senior b comp/challenger, so he doesn't have a huge amount of time to prepare a new one

Thanks for asking!

Yes, I have seen the fancam (and my eternal gratitude to the one who filmed it for us). It was so, so wonderful. I feel emotionally unstable just thinking about it.

I am starting to think he will keep Give Me Love, yes. The layout of the program was particularly interesting. The spins and the steps were exactly where they were last time, but the jump layout was 3S, 3A, 2Lz. My guess (and I noticed Jackie Wong has made the same one) is that we will see 4S-3T/4T-3T, 3A, 3Lz in competition mode.

And I think that it would be a smart idea to use it again. It’s a familiar program that he loves and is familiar with, and audiences and judges are familiar with it too. It also allows him the freedom to rebuild and expand his technical arsenal without having to stress about learning new choreography.

For the competitions - I am assuming we will see him at one or two of the US summer competitions - I’d take a good punt on the Broadmoor Open or the smaller Vail Invitational, maybe even something like Skate Detroit or Glacier Falls. Enamoured of him as they are, the USFS aren’t going to throw him straight into an international without seeing how he goes at the summer comps - and that wouldn’t be fair on the other US men, either.

For Challengers, I am thinking two of the early ones - perhaps Lombardia or Salt Lake City, then Finlandia or Nebelhorn. What happens with his GP assignments is a little unclear. He is regarded a Comeback Skater, so he is guaranteed one assignment if he wishes it, and it is entirely possible that the USFS would give him the host pick for Skate America.

If he is assigned two Challengers at the right times, or gets a GP, that would also give him a bye to US Nationals, something he does not currently have. At the moment, he would have to qualify through Regionals and Sectionals. This in itself might even be his preferred route.

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Yuna Kim  l   2014 Sochi Olympic Games SP  ‘Send in the clowns' 

“After struggling through that warm-up that we watched, this is a completely different woman. She may be one of the greatest competitors I’ve ever witnessed.”

                                                                                           -Sandra Bezic

Tbh, I am still not over this reaction, when Yakov watched Yuri’s FS, directly after the flawless 3A+Lo+3S combinition, just a few moments before the 3Lz+3T. Yakov only took Yuri under his watch for this day because of Victor. Probably he never understood why Victor left him for Yuri, he was pretty mad about it. Until this very moment. Just let this expression sink in. This is a man who watched over Victor Nikiforov for many years, he saw Victor growing up, saw him breaking world records, helped him to set new standards. He was the man who stood in the background while the figure skating world dropped down to Victor’s feet. And still he looked that surprised, that moved when he saw Yuri express his love for Victor through his program. Yakov doesn’t just watch Yuri, he sees him, he sees Yuris devotion to skating and Victor. We know that we get the Yuri-is-not-that-great-of-a-skater-vibe because Yuri sees himself like that. So really look at this old man here who has seen so many skaters in his life. He’s stunned by Yuri Katsuki. Yuri Katsuki is able to surprise a man like Yakov with such a flawed program. Believe me Yuri Katsuki is able to break the FS world record.

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My 3rd sharing from ‘‪Yuzuru Method‬’:
~Senior debut, 15-16 years old (2010-2011)~

NHK Trophy

His senior debut was in the autumn of 2010. The 1st competition was NHK Trophy (in Nagano) with Daisuke Takahashi and Takahito Mura. Of course, the tickets were sold out. It was the season just after Vancouver Olympics and Japan’s figure skating fever was at a peak.
Day after day, TV broadcasted promotions and special programmes on NHK Trophy. They also focused on Hanyu who was the World Junior Champ last season and had just moved up to senior level. All the TV channels and news called him “Japan’s next ace”.
The music he chose for SP was ‘White Legend’ from Swan Lake, and for FP 'Zigeunerweisen’ by Sarasate.

October 22nd, the ladies’ competition started. The men’s competition was the next day, so Hanyu was in the hotel resting his body, and he watched the competition on TV.
Kanako Murakami, who was also World Junior Champ last season, had also moved up to senior level like him. As a peer and a friend, Hanyu watched her performance attentively. Her uptempo 'Jumping Jack’ was fresh and lively, and she achieved an amazing 2nd place in the short programme.

NHK Trophy being the 1st competition of Hanyu’s senior debut, there was actually no pressure for him to be on the podium. But seeing Murakami’s good fight, he suddenly became anxious. In his hotel room, he played games and tried to ease his own anxiety, but he could not fall asleep for a long time that night.

The next day, his turn came.
“Do the jump axis properly on the right, keep the shoulders level.”
These were points to note given by Coach Nanami Abe. Thinking these important points in his head, he did a gesture like a cross over his body. It was a gesture that he made up himself, and he had started doing this from about 1st year of juniors. It was a routine gesture that helped him to focus.
Opening jump, he did a beautiful triple axel. He skated with his feelings and flowed with the music. His position for SP was 5th.
(video link : White Legend is so beautiful)

The next day was the free programme and he would be challenging the quadruple toeloop in competition for the 1st time. Actually, in normal practice, his quad toeloop success rate was still not high. In the Sendai rink where he practised, he himself was the top skater. There were no skaters practising quads around him and he rarely had the chance to see a live quad jump. Now, at the official practices, Japan’s top skaters like Takahashi and Mura were jumping quads all over the rink. Hanyu’s eyes took it all in.
It was different from watching a video. Breathing, timing, sound of blades scraping the ice, softness in the spring of the whole body, all this could be felt at close distance.
He overlapped the images of Takahashi and Mura onto himself and entered into the path of his jump. His top-heavy theories after his own process of trial-and-error, he put those away and thought only of the images of Takahashi and Mura. That morning’s practice, he landed his 4T cleanly. He couldn’t help feeling really happy about it. And he waited impatiently for evening to come.

Evening time, the FP competition began. Before his turn, Coach Abe did not say this or that; she only reminded him to be careful about 'entering the right axis’.
The music of 'Zigeunerweisen’ started powerfully, and for his opening jump he landed a beautiful quad toeloop. As if his body had been familiar with it for many years, it was a graceful and supple quad toe. He was overjoyed.

However, the world of senior competitions was not that sweet. Rotating and landing that 4T which he did not easily land in practice, used up a lot of strength in his body. In the 2nd half, he made a mistake in the triple lutz and the loop was just a single.
“I landed the 4T but my legs became really tired and my stamina was not enough…..”
“But in such a tense atmosphere, landing that 4T which was more beautiful than expected, it was really good. I also succeeded in the 3A-3T in the 2nd half. After that, it was (a lack of) body strength. For my next competition, I want to perform better and get onto the podium. At the senior level, I really get the feeling that I am representing Japan. Getting onto the senior podium is the real thing.”
(FP: 4th place. Overall: 4th)

[Video link;  the commentator said: Yuzu is getting tired in the 2nd half but he is only 15 and has just moved up from juniors; the requirement in senior level is 30 seconds longer for the FP.]

In the days after NHK Trophy, the figure of Hanyu carrying 4 kg dumbbells in each hand, going up and down the stairs could be seen.  One hour each day.
“My stamina was not enough in the free programme during NHK Trophy. So I am training my body trunk/torso. When my torso is stronger, my jumps will be more stable.”

CUP OF RUSSIA

Being 4th in NHK Trophy in October, Hanyu’s mind was set on the podium for Cup of Russia in November.  It was held in Moscow, at the Megasport Arena.

Official practice started. Thinking too much about getting onto the podium, his eyes were drawn to the skaters around him. All were doing quads easily.  At NHK Trophy, as a challenger, he innocently absorbed the jumps of Takahashi and Mura. This time, he was aiming for the 2nd successful quad in competition.
For his SP, he had no quads. He did a clean programme (70.24 points) and was in 6th place. This meant he was in the last group for the FP competition. (ie. the top 6 skaters)

Preparing for the FP, his eyes were drawn to the the manner/style of the quads of other skaters. Of course, being too conscious of his surroundings meant that he could not concentrate on himself.
The actual competition came. For his opening jump, there was some impatience and the quad toeloop became a triple toeloop instead. The usual mistake was missing the timing totally and turning it into single jump, or falling on it, but this (4T–> 3T) was very unexpected. He also had a fall before his step sequence. At the end, his score of 132.42 was much lower than expected.

Because of the rule that “triple jumps can be repeated only up to 2 kinds of jumps”, his 3Lutz-2Toe combination in the 2nd half broke that rule and was given zero points.
(t/n. this was due to his 4T at the start turning into a 3T, so it caused him to have one too many repeated triple jumps. Plan was: 4T, 3A, 3F, 3Lz+2T // 3A+3T, 3Lz+2T+2T, 3Lo, 3S.) (// denotes start of 2nd half)
It was a mistake that caused a loss of 8 points and it had never happened to him before. Sitting in the Kiss&Cry, he was crestfallen and his shoulders drooped. Coach Abe said to him, “From now on, let’s also do the simulation for situations where it (the quad) becomes a triple.” He just nodded quietly.

[Video of FP]

However, when he came before the reporters, the frustration came out before the introspection.
“I’ve always had the thought that I do not want to lose to the quadruple jump. I told myself, even if I fall, even if I die, I will definitely do the quad. That is why I do not want to think about things like 'the jump becoming a triple’ and I have not done any simulation practice. Inside me, I did not want to allow that.”

That was just like him, his kind of guts. For normal skaters, there is a high possibility of 'a little faintheartedness /weakness’ during competition where the quad becomes a triple, and so they would do simulation practice on such a mistake and how to recover for the triple in the 2nd half.  But for Hanyu, to make assumptions of 'a little weakness’ means you are already defeated.
“Rather than regretting about not doing simulations, I regret more that I could not do my quad. Triple toeloop, how many years have I been doing that already, I feel so down and so snubbed.”

Just a simple “after reflection, from now on I will do simulation practice in case I make mistakes on jumps”… even if you rip his mouth, he would not say things like that.  To strategise with an assumption of weakness is the same as sliding backwards, regression. One will not be able to climb over the wall (ie. conquer the challenge).

“There are many walls inside me….. The 1st one is the success of my quads. At last month’s NHK Trophy, I thought I had conquered this wall, but that self-confidence turned into over-confidence. NHK Trophy was in my own country; a competition in a foreign country is another big experience. I am full of regrets, but there’s nothing I can do about it now, the past cannot be reversed. But I really enjoy quad jumps. Precisely because they are difficult, I can find them so enjoyable. I will practise everyday.”

During the interview with the reporters, he saw the final results on the monitor screen. Gachinsky who was 3rd at Junior Worlds last year, was in 6th place. (Yuzu in 7th place)
“Aargh, I was the junior champion last year and he was third! I cannot forgive myself for losing to him. I am so angry with myself right now! But with rivals like that, we can become stronger. I have to include a quad in my short programme as well. It’s been a long time since I felt this regretful……. So what if I’m the Junior World Champ. I am not a junior anymore,  I cannot compete with a junior’s mentality. I realise that now. Ahhh….. I want to quickly return to Japan to practise! I don’t need to watch the exhibition. I can also use the practice rink here to skate or play my free programme music. I want to practise!!!”

“There are so many regrets, I am glad.”
A bit more about Cup of Russia 2010:

Being in 6th place after the short programme at Cup of Russia, Hanyu was in the group of top 6 skaters for the free programme. In that group was Patrick Chan.
He knew that Chan had an established reputation as “world number one” in skating skills, but to see him for real and to practise together, it was the first time.

Unable to contain his excitement, in that morning’s official practice, he could not concentrate on practising his quad jumps, instead he skated behind Chan. Following behind him, he could see what kind of timing Chan had, how much of an angle his blades tilted, how much acceleration he had.
In any case, just skating to follow him took all of Hanyu’s efforts. In addition, with that footwork with the deeply inclined blades that look like they would fall over, and at great speed, Chan did a magnificent quadruple toeloop. It was a masterpiece.
“Patrick is amazing….. It’s good that I could see a strong person.”

In the end, because he was paying too much attention to Chan and other skaters, he did not concentrate on himself. He placed 7th at Cup of Russia. However he felt concretely that he had received something more important than placing.
“Just as I thought, it’s good that I moved up to senior level. I enjoy it. There are so many frustrations/regrets (kuyashii) and I am glad about it. There are still many parts to grow stronger in…… I know what is right before me. I can become stronger.”

Hanyu was not selected for the exhibition.
But he had to go there the next day for an interview. He saw Chan and other skaters practising for the exhibition.

“You can’t help but look at great skaters like Patrick. Watching from outside the rink, one’s eyes are just drawn to him. Skating with him, I can feel his aura. During practice, I feel that I have to give way. 'Top of the World is here! I better get out of the way!’ I get this kind of feeling….”

But there was a strong tone of 'however’.
“If you beat the top of the world, then you are at the top.  I have to fix my eyes on that.  Now I am still on the way there and it is so enjoyable.”

“This is my first time in Russia. The buildings are all so big and the area is vast. In 3 years’ time, the Olympics will be in this country….. I want to compete in Sochi Olympics. I must come to Sochi!”

End of season:
In December 2010, he turned 16 years old. At the Japanese nationals, he put up a good fight and achieved 4th place (and was selected for the 4 Continents Championships).  [FP video]
In February 2011, in his first 4CC (in Taipei), he landed a beautiful quad toeloop and won the silver medal.  Like a dream, he achieved success and his first senior year came to an end.  

4CC: SP video / FP video

(Note: not a proper translation, I paraphrased some parts, some parts are left out.  Pics: all from internet, thanks to original owners.)

Can Yuuri break Victor’s FS World Record

lol it’s me again. YoI ep 12 is about 24 hours away and even tho based on my rant here I have come to a conclusion that YoI have different scoring system than IRL (or maybe ep 11 is an outlier and shouldn’t have been counted lol) I’m gonna have fun with the scores anyway.

Also, for @measuredoutinteaspoons​ hope this answers your question haha.

This is Yuri on Ice FS program that somehow missing Step Sequence (lol Victor get ur shit together ffs). We know from ep. 1, Victor’s Combined Total score in last year GPF is 335.76. I did the calc for his SP here from ep 4 screenshot and it was 113.20. So, his FS is 222.56. 

Is 222.56 a WR? Who knows. Maybe… In Rostelecom Cup we didn’t know JJ’s score but Yurio got 199.87 and placed second. I’m gonna have 222.56 as current WR for the sake of convenience lmao.

Alright, say… if Yuuri does perform Yuri on Ice perfectly (all GOE+3) and all his spins and step sequence is level 4, we’ll get this:

So 230.28 is the max score for the program. But this is unrealistic as hell lmao (not as impossible as Yurio, but still… lol).

Tho, if he want to kick it up a notch, he could change the 3Lo into 4T and 3Lz+3T to 3Lz+3Lo which gives him +6.08 points that brings it to 236.36

*Victor’s ‘wow!’*

Given that Yuuri has history of underscoring, personally, I think he should go for 4 quads (my suggestion above) and the program will probably look like this.

Which means, yeah, with the inhuman current program (all lv 4 and GOE+3) and modified one (reasonable level and GOE but 4 quads), it is possible to break WR. And personally, I believe Yuuri will either way :D

Can’t wait tbh. Go Yuuri, go.

Calculating Yuuri’s FS Potential

(Ask pt.1 - Notes on Step Sequences)

(referring to this post
It’s definitely possible. Many of the YOI skaters have their spins cut out in return for giving us wonderful moments of introspection, so it would be difficult to predict theirs, but lucky for us, Yuuri has the most animation and Victor was kind enough to write out his initial FS layout. I doubt they would change those spins unless they’re just tweaking arm movements to fit the music beats and earn PCS. A small disclaimer: spins have their own base value for the level they are awarded. This is separate from GOE. Victor would have choreographed level 4 spins (the hardest) for Yuuri, but when a skater does a spin, technical specialists are the ones to check if the spin met the requirements for difficulty level 1, 2, 3, or 4. So we’re going to assume that Yuuri did the right number of rotations, stayed centered, etc. etc. to get a level 4.

I’ll just go ahead and add in the points for a Choreography Sequence (ChSq) and a level 4 Step Sequence (StSq4) while I’m at it.

4T+2T= 10.3+1.3 = 11.60
FSSp4 (Flying Sit Spin lvl4) = 3.0
4S = 10.5
CCSp4 (Change-of-foot Camel Spin lvl4) = 3.2
3F = 5.3

———
ChSq (Choreo Sequence) = 2.0
3A = 8.5+10% = 9.35
4T = 10.3+10% = 11.33
3A+1Lo+3S = (8.5+0.5+4.4)+10% = 14.74
3Lz = 6.0+10% = 6.60
3T = 4.3+10% = 4.73
Stsq4 (Step Sequence lvl4) = 3.9
4F = 12.3+10% = 13.53
CCoSp4 (Change-of-foot Combination Spin lvl4) = 3.5

Yuuri’s Total Jump BV: 87.68
+ 15.6 other elements
Yuuri’s Total BV: 103.28

Spins aren’t judged on exact position (Y-spin, donut spin, pancake spin, cannonball etc.), so much as they’re judged by category (Upright Spin, Layback Spin, Camel Spin, Sit Spin) and what the spin does (change of foot, flying entry). Things like changing the skate edge (from inside to outside), changing direction of the spin, or doing a Biellmann as one of the positions, will help skaters earn higher GOE.

If you add +100 PCS and +3GOE for everything…

+3GOE for Spins = 1.5
(FSSp4, CCSp4, CCoSp4 = 4.5)
+3GOE for Triples (except 3A) = 2.1
(3F, 3Lz, 3T = 6.3)
+3GOE for Quads (and 3A) = 3.0
(4T+2T, 4S, 3A, 4T, 3A+1Lo+3S, 4F= 18)
+3GOE for StSq/ChSq = 2.1
(StSq, ChSq = 4.2)

236.28 is the maximum score Yuuri could get for his FS

youtube

Universe..this is the Olympic champion : Yuzuru Hanyu !

Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final - Men (Intended jump layouts)

Based on previous competitions

Javier Fernandez (ESP)

  • SP: 4S, 3Lz+3T, 3A
  • FS: 4T, 4S+3T, 3A, 4S, 3F+Lo+3S, 3T, 3Lz+2T, 3Lo

Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)

  • SP: 4S. 4T+3T, 3A
  • FS: 4S, 4T, 3F, 4T+3T, 3A+2T, 3A+Lo+3S, 3Lo, 3Lz

Shoma Uno (JPN)

  • SP: 3A, 4T, 3F+3T
  • FS: 4T, 3A, 3A+3T, 3Lo, 3S, 4T+2T, 3Lz, 2A+Lo+3F

Boyang Jin (CHN)

  • SP: 4Lz+3T, 3A, 4T
  • FS: 4Lz, 4S, 3A+Lo+3S, 4T+2T, 4T, 3Lz+3T, 3A, 3F

Patrick Chan (CAN)

  • SP: 4T+3T, 3A, 3Lz
  • FS: 4T+3T, 3A, 4T, 3Lz+2T, 3Lz+2T+2Lo, 3Lo, 3S, 3F

Daisuke Murakami (JPN)

  • SP: 4S, 3A, 3Lz+3Lo
  • FS: 4S, 4S+2T, 3A+2T, 3A, 3F, 3Lz+Lo+2S, 3Lo, 3S

*Quads bolded (24 in total)

youtube

MAO ASADA | 2014 Sochi Olympics, Free Skate Practice (Run-through)

3A, 3F-3L, 3Lz, 2A-3T, 2S, 3F-2L-2L, 3L

Looks like our girl is ready to go! *crosses fingers*

My thoughts on Yulia's score in Ladies Team Event

First of all, this post is not against Yulia but the obvious over scoring she got in both her lp and sp. Yulia is a very talented skater and when I first saw her skate that Schindler’s List program, I got goosebumps with the spins. She has incredible flexibility and she uses it to her advantage. Her jumps, that’s another talk. 

In her short program, she opened with a 3Lz-3T combination. The 3T was fine but the lutz was obviously a flutz and you don’t need to be an Olympic judge to tell. 

Here’s the proof:

External image

See how she changed edge and took off with an inner edge? Lutz jump should take off in an outside edge. Like this:

External image

Also, her aerial position is wonky that it made me feel scared she’ll fall and hurt herself. Look at the height and distance her jump covers, it’s really small which is a concern because she’s so young and she’ll still grow. Puberty is not kind to almost everyone. 

But this jump got a +1.40 GoE (Grade of Execution) and that really puzzled me. Her GoE is very near to Yuna Kim’s whose jumps almost always gets +2 - +3 GoEs. But LOOK at the quality of Yuna’s jumps and see the big difference between the skaters.

I’m not against Yulia. I hate the unfair judging. If she is getting way too high score and not receiving edge calls when she needs them, then she will get used to it. It’s hard to correct wrong edges when your older because figure skating is about muscle memory. If your body got used to the wrong technique, it’s very difficult to correct it and she will suffer in the end. The judges are not always on your favor. They’re not always pretending to be blind.

In addition to, I wonder how they will score Yuna in the individual event. If they are giving high +GoEs to a teeny tiny wobbly jump, I’m expecting Yuna to get massive scores again if she delivers. I hope so.

so my interest in figure skating kind went downhill after the new judging system but i think it’s been improved pretty much as much as it can be atm.. obviously we’ll never go back to the 6.0 days but at least now the quad is worth more, flutzing/underrotation is punished and the technical prowess has gone up significantly in the women’s field (although the commonly used 3Lz-3T was even done by Kristi Yamaguchi in 1992!). 

yuna kim - if she skates clean and does her program exactly as planned, she will take gold. any room for doubt however and mao/julia can easily take this from her. she is one of the most consistent competitors ever, so my bet is still on her. 

mao asada - she has improved so much in her artistry since her jumping bean days but i fear that the 3A will be her downfall at some point in this comp. yet she knows she can’t beat yuna without it. hopefully she got that meltdown out of her system. 

julia lipnitskaia - this girl really is like tara lipinski + sasha cohen. she still has to work on that flutz issue but hers is at usually ambiguous enough that she can get away with it sometimes, but her LP is very much a winning program. if she skates perfectly again, the crowd would go nuts if she doesn’t win. her PCS has been steadily rising over the season and it’s clearly getting an additional home court boost. if everyone skate perfectly i expect her to at least get a bronze. 

patrick chan - the fact that he’s won so many titles while falling on his ass shows that the ISU system is still kind of weird/needs work, if he’s really ~on~ then i wouldn’t argue against him winning but this dude has some of the most epic splats in history and i kind of doubt he will get so lucky here as he was at 2013 worlds if he has another skate like that. 

hanyu yuzuru - this kid is extremely talented and if he skates clean and patrick doesn’t, he can take this. his jumps are beautiful and his second mark is competitive enough with patrick’s that he can take easy advantage over any mistakes. 

denis ten - i’m afraid he just doesn’t have the consistency right now for me to have much confidence in him but his 2013 worlds LP was absolutely sensational and should’ve won that title over splatty mcsplat. 

evgeni plushenko - no olympic convo is complete without mentioning the tony stark of figure skating. the fact that he can still do this at 31 is enough of a victory for him and the team gold is a nice addition to his hardware collection. i don’t expect his body to hold up for the individual event though, certainly not the LP. but whatever he can go home with a record number of olympic medals in his career.