!dkk

Being stuck in an elevator with Seventeen

S.Coups: “don’t be afraid, I got this” - mental breakdown

Jeonghan: stuck in an elevator - still fabulous, taking selfies 

Joshua: prays to god

Jun: insults the elevator in chinese

Hoshi: starts playing games on his mobile phone

Wonwoo: “In order to stay alive, we all have to take our clothes off

Woozi: prepares his last words for the world

DK: “well.. you remember what they did in the movie we watched recently?”  

Mingyu: whispers “eat or be eaten..”

The8: starts crying, you hold him in your arms

Seungkwan: panically pressing all the buttons

Vernon: starts flirting with you 

Dino: tries to call his mom, realises Jeonghan is right next to him

Woozi’s farewell letter is coming soon, check out our blog ;)

4

Germinating Avocado Seeds

50 DKK / 6.70  € / $7.30 USD

The avocado seeds I planted in cardboard rolls in late September have rooted and begun to grow stems!

I have them up in my shop for those of you interested in seedling avocados. You can pretty much throw the tubes in a pot of soil: the cardboard will biodegrade, and from this point onwards the trees grow rapidly.

I grow a tonne of seedling avocados, so you can read about what I’m doing, and what other gardeners are doing, in the #avocado archive.

3

tried the two buns thing again and remembered why i hated them when i was little, never could get them to be equal and it always made me so frustrated that i would be on the verge of tears, just like right now. did not need that, nope.

they did look kind of cute in the beginning tbh (ft. tony the cat)

The expected net profit of playing the lottery

When you play the lottery, you’re betting against some very small probabilities, but since the prizes can be rather large sums of money, one could wonder what the net profit of playing would be on average.
In this post, I’ll explore that thought, using the Danish lottery (and DKK as currency) as an example, which works like this:

Every Saturday, 7 winner numbers and 1 bonus number are drawn from a fancy machine with 36 numbered balls (first the winner ones, then the bonus). When you play the lottery, you pay to bet on which numbers are drawn, and depending on how many you get right, you win some amount of money.


THE PROBABILITIES

The first thing we need is to work out the probabilities of matching the drawn numbers. For this, we will make use of the binomial coefficient (read “n choose k”) defined as binom(n, k), 

The binomial coefficient is the number of ways you can choose k out of n elements without regard to order (by convention, binom(n, 0) = 1).

The probability of getting k out of the 7 winner numbers right is thus:

where binom(7, k) is the number of ways we can have k out of 7 winner numbers, and it’s multiplied by the number of ways you can have the remaining 7-k out of 29 non-winner numbers, binom(29, 7-k), giving us the number of combinations of betting numbers that match k winner numbers. This is then divided by the number of ways the 7 winner numbers can be drawn from the pool of 36, giving us the probability of the event.

Note that the above equation doesn’t hold for k = 6, since that’s where the bonus number comes into play. Here, we have

and 

where in both cases we have binom(7, 6) ways to match 6 of the 7 winner numbers, and for each of those, we have 29 ways to miss the last winner number. Then, in the no bonus case, we have 28 ways to miss the bonus number (since for each combination of winner numbers, there are 29 leftover balls to draw a bonus ball from), whereas in the bonus right case, we have 1 way to match the drawn bonus number. Divided by the number of combinations of winner numbers and bonus number, this gives us the probabilities of the events.


THE EXPECTED VALUE OF A BET

For this part, we’re considering the payout of playing the lottery as a random variable, a real-valued variable that gets its value from the random ‘experiment’ of drawing the lottery numbers.

Formally, the expected value of a random variable X is

and it denotes an average of the values X can have, weighted by their corresponding probabilities. Letting X be the lottery payout, each xk is the payout corresponding to matching k winner numbers, and it’s weighted by the probability of getting said payout (when k goes above 7, the probabilities become 0 and those terms vanish).
Since we now know the probabilities, we just need some payout figures.

They vary from week to week, but for this example let’s use these figures (from the draw at 2015-09-05) as they are relatively average:

  • 7 winner numbers: 6,504,259 DKK
  • 6 winner + bonus number: 195,156 DKK 
  • 6 winner numbers: 2,247 DKK 
  • 5 winner numbers: 122 DKK
  • 4 winner numbers: 42 DKK
  • 0-3 winner numbers: 0 DKK

Evaluating the expected value with these figures yields E[X] = 1.69 DKK.
However, playing the lottery isn’t free, and in the Danish lottery it costs 4 DKK per bet. Thus, the theoretical average net profit given the figures used is

–2.30 DKK,

a negative number, and therefore a loss for the player.

5

Purple-Flowering Cranesbill Plants

60 DKK / $9 USD / 8 €

Perennial cranesbill plants are true geraniums – the annual plants sold in garden centres are actually pelargoniums!

A single cranesbill plant will spread to over 50cm in diameter in a single season: they are excellent for covering large areas of ground in mass plantings, and colonise an area rapidly.

The large purple blossoms on this cultivar are absolutely covered in bees and other pollinators every year, owing in no small part to their vibrant ultraviolet hue.

Once the blossoms have faded, the cucumber-like smell of the unique foliage lingers.

The dense foliage of these plants is excellent for holding down weeds: they are perfect for planting around the base of a tree.        

 Up in my shop →

PLEASE HELP MY WONDERFUL DAD WIN A COMPETITION

You can do it by clicking this link and watching a 30-second video that my dad made. It’s a commercial for a Danish festival called Smukfest and he could win 125.000 DKK!!! Besides the fact that we could really use that money, here are some other reasons for you to watch this: 

  • My mom is dancing in a green wig in it
  • There’s a dog
  • It’s a really good video
  • There’s no dialogue so it doesn’t matter if you don’t speak Danish.
  • And my dad is the best dad in the world and he deserves to win this, so please please please just spend 30 seconds watching this. The competition is about creating a viral commercial so the judges are going to look at the number of views that all the videos have!! 

Please help me make my dad happy! Thank you and have a lovely day!