Apparently the first hurricane since 1939 is expected to make landfall in California this weekend. It’s expected that an entire year’s worth of rain will fall in 24-48hrs. Don’t you love climate change?
It’s expected that the hurricane will weaken to a tropical storm before making landfall in Southern California.
Still, as someone who lives in LA, this is deeply concerning. Anyone who lives in Los Angeles knows that the city is DEEPLY unprepared to handle any amount of rain, let alone a TROPICAL STORM. The tiniest amounts of rainfall cause floods in LA, because the city has no drainage systems in place. I’ve seen DRIZZLES cause floods. It takes so little rain to flood LA.
If a tropical storm truly does make landfall in LA, it will have a devastating effect on the city’s very large unhoused population. LA (along with NYC) has the biggest unhoused population in the United States, and these people will be stuck on the flooded streets.
Deeply concerning.
Coincidentally, in November 2022, researchers at UC Irvine conducted a study on how a major flood would impact Los Angeles.
From ABC news (s):
“In a state severely hobbled by drought and wildfires, flood concerns may not seem top-of-mind. But a new study out of UC Irvine found that Los Angeles County's aging flood systems may not be ready for a major flood.
"Right now, our research suggests that our infrastructure and the way we've built it out is much more vulnerable to this type of event than I think anyone would have guessed," said Brett Sanders, a Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UCI and one of the authors of the paper.
The study expands on federal flood risk maps that do not include flooding from rainstorms, only coastal and river flooding, according to Sanders.
“For any Angeleno that drives around [in a] Southern California rainstorm, you know that you quickly find yourself in a street corner filled with water. And those risks aren't mapped," said Sanders.
"So you can imagine the small amount of flooding we have in our streets on a typical winter storm. What might that look like in a once-in-100-year-storm?" he continued.
According to the study's mid-range estimates, 425,000 people could be exposed to flooding of more than a foot, causing $56 billion in property damage in the event of a major flood.
But, those are the researchers' "best guess," said Sanders. The study accounted for uncertainties in how much water would flow through the area in a once-in-a-century flood.
The study's low estimates put 197,000 Angelenos at risk of experiencing flood levels of more than about a foot and property damage at about $36 billion. On the high end, a major flood could impact 874,000 people and cause $108 billion in property damage.
The study also found that communities of color would be more likely to experience waist-high flooding.
Black, Latino and Asian Angelenos would be 79%, 17%, and 11% more likely, respectively, to experience deep flooding than white Angelenos.”
I seriously hope that the storm weakens before it makes landfall. I hope this concern becomes completely unnecessary and that it’s nothing more than a little drizzle.
For the latest updates:
As of 6:35am PDT: "HILARY REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES."
"Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada, which would lead to significant and rare impacts. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected."
(Public Advisory 8A; next advisory will be at 8am PDT)
