San Diego California Real Estate Home Values About to Drop
The good news is who San Diego home prices have increased for the past ten months in a row. A positive outlook would suggest that the realty decline bottomed in April 2009 and that housing rates will continue with, at least, modest appreciation. Recently an area news headline noted San Diego home price appreciation outpaced the rest of the nation. Another headline stated that San Diego Region house prices rose 11. 7% in April 2010, as compared to April 2009. This was said to be the fastest quote of annual appreciation increase in the nation. Plus, North park County home prices have been rebounding for the past time after their 40% decline from the top of the market on 2005. In light of the above news, one would often be hard-pressed not to agree with the consensus opinion that the backside has been reached in the San Diego real estate market; the current recovery definitely seems to be outpacing the national averages. Visit here : Parc Canberra In 2005, I said an article entitled "A trend to go national" where When i predicted that the trends I saw occurring in our localized housing market, which defined classic irrational exuberance, were not just about to take down the local market, but I believed, would certainly affect the entire nation. I was not alone in boosting the caution flags about the real estate market, and those who were swept up in the exuberance of the market as well as many media boutiques, coined the term bubblehead to myself and others, to mean a certain foolishness to those who would speak out to protect against such a powerful and (certain to be) continued gross double-digit home appreciation. It was difficult to raise the extreme care flags in 2005. The San Diego real estate market from 2000 to 2005 appreciated on average approximately 20% per year. Before the summer of 2005, when the sales volume started to come but the prices were still appreciating, there weren't self evident signs of pending trouble, especially to the layperson. Almost all did not foresee a market collapse. Even in the latter area of 2005, while the slowing market became quite evident, the conventional consensus of opinion was that it was just a natural pullback. Most optimistic outlooks touted a strong market along with a great opportunity for many to purchase real estate in San Diego prior to upswing resumed. Now it is July of 2010. Equivalent though different, market conditions make it again difficult to be against the conventional trend which is stating that a bottom has long been put in place and we are on an upward rebound. I recently joined a seminar by a prominent real estate economist who forecast a slow but steady rise in local place values. His charts and facts presented at the seminar were quite impressive. Not being a real estate agent or agent "in the trenches, " I believe his data wasn’t reflecting the most current conditions, especially after the expiration of your federal tax credits. It's hard to say exactly what outcome the $8000 federal tax credit for home individuals had on the real estate market. Personally I believe it to be very similar to the government's cash for clunkers program, whereby, the software pulled buyers from future months into the current plan. The result was an increase in the actual housing demand not to mention values for people trying to get in before the credit expired. After the cash for clunkers program ended, auto sales had a nose dive for a number of months before finally backing. The federal $8000 credit ended on April 33, 2010. If you had a property in escrow on or perhaps before April 30, and closed it before the last part of June (now extended through September) you would be qualified to apply for the credit if you qualified. The housing figures at this time being reported reflect this activity created by the $8000 credit. As long as the property went into escrow by The spring 30, sales could close in May and 06 which still affects housing numbers. Housing sales studies are usually closed sales and unlike the stock market, you will need some time for a property to go through escrow. The first housing statistics to be reported, that don't reflect as much of the impression of the government's $8000 tax credit will be sales just for July, reported during August. California instituted its own place a burden on credit which went into effect on May 1, 2010. Only 100 million was allocated for this and the Los angeles franchise tax Board reported that as of June 15, 80% of this amount had been allocated. One could speculate the current slowdown I've seen in San Diego neighborhoods would not possibly be reflected in reports for closed sales until July. On July 1, the national Association of Realty reported that sales of existing homes dropped 30% in May from April. For the Western states the drop was reported as 20. 9%. Though the Gulf obviously was doing better than the rest of the country, the big double-digit declines are a major red flag that can't be ignored. Don't be fooled by the media talking heads' effervescent housing recovery rhetoric. Keep in mind that many of their sponsors and also advertisers are from real estate related industries. Plus, a number of the same media talking heads were the same folks who declared there was no real estate bubble and any slowdown was basically an opportunity to jump into the market in the summer of 2005. As an active San Diego California real estate broker I could go to the marked decline in real estate activity, in many local locations, right after the April 30 federal tax credit termination. Homes listed for sale that just a few weeks earlier would have gotten multiple showings in one week, are now lucky that should be shown once a week. Indications from local escrow companies plus from a major San Diego mortgage company indicate that this going slower trend is significant and widespread throughout San Diego Nation. What's really troubling, is that the government tax credit score was not enough to jumpstart our local housing market. As well as, the fact that this new downturn has started in the seasonally adjusted hottest marketing timeframe, coupled with historically low mortgage loan interest rates, would indicate that as we approach Fall as well as Winter, this trend could easily accelerate and from a real real estate market bottom in late 2011 or 2012. San Diego is the third most real estate dependent area near you (with Orlando and Miami being the first and subsequently respectively) the general San Diego economy should also experience a double-dip until the real housing market bottom is in place.
