Losing skin
I want to talk about this passage right here:
As they did their count, Jon peeled the glove off his left hand and touched the nearest haunch of venison. He could feel his fingers sticking, and when he pulled them back he lost a bit of skin. His fingertips were numb. What did you expect? There’s a mountain of ice above your head, more tons than even Bowen Marsh could count. Even so, the room felt colder than it should.
So Jonsas (of course) love to take this as Jon vs. Daenerys war foreshadowing because in the previous chapter to this one (ADWD Daenerys III/Chapter 16), Dany received a bloody glove as a declaration of war from Xaro.
Never mind that losing a layer or two of skin from touching something frozen is hardly enough to bloody a glove (let alone bleed), I think there are two far more plausible explanations for the probable significance of the above excerpt.
The first deals with the imminent and ever nearing arrival of the Others. The second has to do with the skin Jon puts in Stannis’s war and the skin he may lose. The first is a take not original to me, it has floating around the ASOIAF, while the second came from something @etherealdany pointed out to me :)
The Others
Together with an except from the prologue for ADWD, I think this passage most likely speaks to the ominous and ever-nearing arrival of the Others. This take has floated around for several years and it seem to me that it’s the most plausible:
Varamyr woke suddenly, violently, his whole body shaking. “Get up,” a voice was screaming, “get up, we have to go. There are hundreds of them.” The snow had covered him with a stiff white blanket. So cold. When he tried to move, he found that his hand was frozen to the ground. He left some skin behind when he tore it loose.
Up top they found a tunnel as long as Winterfell’s great hall though no wider than the wormways. The walls were ice, bristling with iron hooks. From each hook hung a carcass: skinned deer and elk, sides of beef, huge sows swinging from the ceiling, headless sheep and goats, even horse and bear. Hoarfrost covered everything.
As they did their count, Jon peeled the glove off his left hand and touched the nearest haunch of venison. He could feel his fingers sticking, and when he pulled them back he lost a bit of skin. His fingertips were numb. What did you expect? There’s a mountain of ice above your head, more tons than even Bowen Marsh could count. Even so, the room felt colder than it should.
In the first excerpt, wildling skinchanger Varamyr wakes up violently somewhere beyond the Wall with people shouting that they need to go, “There are hundreds of them.” I think it’s safe to say this is referring to the Others and the undead, especially when taken into account with everything else said about what it feels like when the Others are present (unnaturally cold temperatures).
Jon and Varamyr both notice the exceptionally cold temperatures and that frost has covered everything (including Varamyr). To Varamyr, he is so cold that his hand has been frozen to the ground. To Jon, the room felt colder than it should despite being under a mountain of ice. Both lose skin to get free from something frozen.
There are already existing connections between Varamyr and Jon. It is revealed Varamyr sought to steal Ghost from Jon (”Mance should have let me take the direwolf. There would be a second life worthy of a king”) while, when Varamyr is killed, his mind lives on in his own wolf – two things that I believe are clearly pointing to what’s happening next for Jon after this assassination.
I think the above excerpt from Jon IV is speaking to two things specifically – the textual connections between Jon and Varamyr as well as the arrival of the Others.
Throughout ADWD in particular, we are told how cold it gets when Others are present:
Sam sucked in air, and rolled feebly away. The wight was burning, hoarfrost dripping from his beard as the flesh beneath blackened. Sam heard the raven shriek, but Paul himself made no sound. When his mouth opened, only flames came out. And his eyes … It’s gone, the blue glow is gone.
He crept to the door. The air was so cold that it hurt to breathe, but such a fine sweet hurt. He ducked from the longhall. “Gilly?” he called. “Gilly, I killed it. Gil—”
She stood with her back against the weirwood, the boy in her arms. The wights were all around her. There were a dozen of them, a score, more … some had been wildlings once, and still wore skins and hides … but more had been his brothers. Sam saw Lark the Sisterman, Softfoot, Ryles. The wen on Chett’s neck was black, his boils covered with a thin film of ice. And that one looked like Hake, though it was hard to know for certain with half his head missing. They had torn the poor garron apart, and were pulling out her entrails with dripping red hands. Pale steam rose from her belly.
“My tongue is too numb to tell. All I can taste is cold.”
“Cold?” Val laughed lightly. “No. When it is cold it will hurt to breathe. When the Others come …”
The thought was a disquieting one. Six of the rangers Jon had sent out were still missing. It is too soon. They may yet be back. But another part of him insisted, They are dead, every man of them. You sent them out to die, and you are doing the same to Val. “Tell Tormund what I’ve said.”
“I know,” said Jon Snow.
Tormund turned back. “You know nothing. You killed a dead man, aye, I heard. Mance killed a hundred. A man can fight the dead, but when their masters come, when the white mists rise up … how do you fight a mist, crow? Shadows with teeth … air so cold it hurts to breathe, like a knife inside your chest … you do not know, you cannot know … can your sword cut cold?”
Tormund and Val in particular remind Jon that Jon doesn’t know true cold until the Others are there. Others, who are connected with death, who raise the dead, who turn living breathing human beings into cold living dead.
On this note, Jon’s line to Val (“My tongue is too numb to tell. All I can taste is cold.”) resembles Jon’s very final thought before he dies:
Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold…
I’m certain that the ever-nearing arrival of the Others, Jon’s death, and Dany will all be connected. Not only is fire often linked to life in Jon’s chapters (and in his Night’s Watch vows), but the ADWD Jon VIII passage above has the moonlight turn Val’s blonde hair a pale silver. She says the air tastes sweet.
I think both of these clearly connect to Dany (who has pale silver gold hair) and her vision (of a blue rose filling the air with sweetness, often linked to Jon). Jon, at this point, cannot taste the sweet because he (unlike Val) does not know true cold. Val can taste the sweet because she’s acclimatized to this cold, she’s lived the harsh life of the free folk, she’s lived a life exposed to the elements and, most importantly, she knows what it feels like when the Others are near. She and Tormund remind Jon that he does not know true cold yet, specifically because Jon does not know how it feels when the Others are present.
However, I expect Jon will know true cold when he is brought back from his death and when the Others come, maybe giving him the ability to appreciate natural cold and taste its sweetness having known both death and the Others. Regardless, I think the discussed excerpt wherein Jon loses some skin and the excerpt of Varamyr in the prologue are certainly connected to each other and the imminent arrival of the Others.
Stannis
@etherealdany made a good point to me about how if there is a connection between the bloody glove Dany receives as a declaration of war from Xaro and Jon losing some skin touching a frozen piece of meet, it’d be about Xaro’s war and Stannis’s war ramping up at this point.
This led me down a thought rabbit hole where I wondered if perhaps this skin-losing excerpt may be speaking to Jon increasingly throwing in his lot with Stannis. Jon is putting in skin in the game, particularly to support Stannis.
Increasingly, over ADWD’s narrative, Jon supports Stannis more and more – even knowing that he must remain neutral:
“Lord Snow?” a soft voice said.
He turned to find Clydas standing beneath the broken archway, a parchment in his hand. “From Stannis?” Jon had been hoping for some word from the king. The Night’s Watch took no part, he knew, and it should not matter to him which king emerged triumphant. Somehow it did.
And this, when Jon learns Stannis has taken Deepwood Motte and successfully joined the mountain clans to his cause:
The Night’s Watch was sworn to take no side in the quarrels and conflicts of the realm. Nonetheless, Jon Snow could not help but feel a certain satisfaction.
Or this when Alys comes to Jon with news of the Karstarks playing false with Stannis:
Clydas had dispatched a raven to Deepwood Motte to warn the king of Arnolf Karstark’s treachery, but whether the bird had reached His Grace in time Jon did not know.
Jon’s concern for what Stannis wants to do:
“Once Lord Roose has joined his strength to Ramsay’s, they will have you outnumbered five to one… Sire, this is a bold stroke, but the risk—” The Night’s Watch takes no part. Baratheon or Bolton should be the same to me. “If Roose Bolton should catch you beneath his walls with his main strength, it will be the end for all of you.”
Jon realized that his words were wasted. Stannis would take the Dreadfort or die in the attempt. The Night’s Watch takes no part, a voice said, but another replied, Stannis fights for the realm, the ironmen for thralls and plunder. “Your Grace, I know where you might find more men. Give me the wildlings, and I will gladly tell you where and how.”
In AFFC, Cersei already suspects Jon of supporting Stannis against the Iron Throne and sends assassins to take care of that. Bowen Marsh fears the wrath of the Iron Throne because he fears Jon is doing too much to help Stannis and that may anger the Lannisters, who control the Iron Throne. Sam reminds Jon that they are not Stannis’s men.
Finally, when Ramsay sends the Pink Letter to Jon, he writes:
Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.
Jon’s “false king”, not a “false king”. From this, it seems Ramsay has the same suspicions over Jon taking a side and supporting Stannis. Because of this, Ramsay demands Jon surrender Stannis’s wife and daughter to him. Jon has put skin in the game, Stannis’s game, and from this letter, it seems he’s lost (if Ramsay’s words are true but I think that’s a lie, especially when GRRM has revealed Stannis will burn Shireen).
Jon keeps reminding himself to stay neutral and in this topic’s excerpt, when Jon pulls his finger away to lose some skin, he asks himself, “What did you expect?”
Additionally, Jon’s support of Stannis plays a part in his officer’s mounting dissatisfaction with Jon as Lord Commander, which culminates in the mutiny against Jon. Ramsay supposedly revealing Stannis’s fate and calling him Jon’s king seemingly confirms Bowen’s fears – that Jon was, in truth, supporting Stannis and here is a consequence of that: Ramsay is threatening Jon and the Watch with retaliation if Jon does not meet his demands.
So Jon rallies and decides to go down there and take care of Ramsay Bolton himself, even though Jon is supposed to be a neutral Lord Commander who stays out of this stuff. Shortly after this, Jon is assassinated in a mutiny led by Bowen Marsh. So it seems Jon has lost quite a bit of skin in meddling with the realm’s affairs.
I mean, I think I ended up going way too far in this second interpretation over one little line about Jon receiving an injury that’s tantamount to a paper cut. That said, I think this would be way more plausible than some chapter-order-dependent-Jonsa-theory about how it “foreshadows” a Jon vs. Dany war which would fit in perfectly with their Jonsa fantasies – especially when losing a few layers of skin wouldn’t even result in Jon bloodying his glove XD
But it did make me picture a scenario where Jon goes to war with Dany after he receives a paper cut and sends Dany a startling white sheet of paper with a little smudge of red in the corner as a solemn declaration of war ;)