This doesn't belong anywhere.

reading umineko chapter 4

ange constantly speaking in mathematical metaphors is so funny to me. no one in rokkenjima uses this language

Objectives:

Solve the epitaph

Collect 5 golden ingots (1/5)

Restrict blood flow to Erika's throat

Biden both giving Eliot Abrams a job and deciding to send cluster munitions to Ukraine in the same week, just as a reminder that “evil” is a perfectly appropriate and neutral term for describing US foreign policy

usa evil 😭😭 for giving Ukraine weapons to fight off fucking fascist invaders 😭😭😭

But seriously, what the fuck are you on about?

You can be pro-Ukraine and still anti-”Lets Not Support Regan Era Warmongers and fundamentally flawed/civilian dangerous weapons”, folks. Complexities, always complexities. Most nations have signed a ban on the use of these weapons, fyi. America is one of the few that hasn’t.

I must say

Im not "Pro-Ukraine"

I'm Ukrainian

My life depends on your silly evil politicians.

America being one of the 'few" who haven't signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions is like:

This isn't a headcount issue guys. Norway *gets* to sign this treaty because they aren't responsible for their own security; they are part of the US security umbrella. Of "relevant" world military organizations that have signed this treaty, it looks to me like its...zero. Its literally zero military factions. Every country that signed this treaty either isn't a military threat or is going to go into war alongside a country that does have these weapons. Not even saying its a good or bad decision, just that this isn't chemical weapons. Cluster munitions are standard operating procedure for war, Russia has been using them in their current invasion of Ukraine, *Ukraine* probably already has too, there is no actual extant military consensus to not use them. The standard operating procedure for war is quite terrible! War is really bad. But its the world we live in.

On the actual decision, this to me seems like it is stemming way more from supply issues than from strategic desires; the US military industrial base is very poorly prepared for a long war, so we are digging into whatever stocks we have to supply munitions and since we don't love using cluster munitions due to current US doctrine we have a bunch of them sitting around. We can't make enough conventional high-end artillery shells and such to go around, so into the back-ups we go.

Still, 'fortunately' this war's growing trench-style dynamics means that there are many locations with minimal civilian populations and Russian fortified positions where I can see the munitions being of use without a large increase in civilian risk (civilian risk being, already, massively high because war is terrible). Overall I do not think the US should be in the position of gainsaying Ukrainian strategic decision-making, I would certainly prefer to improve the US industrial base instead but you fight a war with the weapons you have against the weapons the enemy has, not the weapons you wish you and your enemy had.

Can we also add to that last point that the impetus for the prohibition of cluster munitions was the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War, which involved Israel using cluster munitions in foreign territory against a pseudo-army heavily integrated into the civilian population. Israel was trying to clear guerrilla-but-entrenched forces from dense urban areas full of civilians.

These strikes were conducted across a number of mere weeks, with most cluster munitions dropped in a matter of days. The destruction was obviously quite vast:

But circumstances are completely different in Ukraine. For starters, Ukraine will be using these to strike its own territory - not foreign. To be frank, Israel didn't really give a shit about Lebanese infrastructure or life. Ukraine does care about Ukrainian homes. And as said in the post above, these munitions will likely be used most significantly to clearly trenches and other established military fortifications. Less the above picture, and more like this:

And because this is land Ukraine is very actively trying to liberate and recapture it means Ukrainian forces will be moving into these trenches, and moving through the villages, towns and cities they secure. Unlike Israel in Lebanon, unlike the US in the Gulf War, and unlike the US in Laos (another common parallel I've seen drawn) this will not be a fire-and-forget sort of deal. Ukrainian forces have every incentive to not riddle their captured territory with explosives. Territory they will be walking over themsleves in very short order!

They will know precisely where they have fired them, and they will be clearing these fields and areas of unexploded ordinance - and not just of cluster munitions, but mines, chemical spillage, unexploded artillery shells, Russian boobytraps, etc etc. See, a Ukrainian solider clearing an area of mines and UXO.

See, a Ukrainian farmer clearing his field of landmines:

People are trying to apply lessons from the past to a completely different set of circumstances in a completely different kind of war.

Agree, this is a lot of detail on something I was hinting at, if imo overselling it a little bit. Wars are contextual, weapons are contextual, civilian risk is contextual (it is literally impossible to prosecute the war in Ukraine with zero civilian risk). Cluster munitions arent unleashing a virus, and they are an effective weapon, which is why virtually every major military uses them. I dont a priori see this as a bad decision - it could be, i havent done the deep research. But this does seem like a typical 'war' decision, one with tradeoffs on both sides, and you probably will never know if it was a right call or not.

The idea that all of Western Europe has no relevant military force post-1991 is completely stupid. Germany or France individually have budgets and militaries more significant than, say, Ukraine. This isn't the Cold War anymore and Germany (which inherited the East German military on reunification) isn't planning on being overrun by the former Soviet Union until American troops arrive. That's a completely ridiculous and vibes-based way to assess the military importance of cluster munitions for victory.

No one said this, so its not an objection to anything on here. What *is* true is that, outside of a few incredibly minor operations, every one of those countries you named has over the past 30 years conducted military operations as part of NATO and in conjunction with the US. And cluster munitions were used in those missions. While Im not saying they dont themselves oppose them or anything, its very cheap talk; their militaries are, at this point, built for joint operations with NATO in the face of any real war, and NATO doctrine includes cluster munitions. The fact that they let the US carry that burden is true for a myriad of weapon platforms, its not special.

That's not untrue but is completely irrelevant to whether there is any advantage to using cluster munitions that comes anywhere near justifying or countervailing the civilian deaths that predictably result from its use, as has been the case in the NATO operations you mention!

Sure, but then you have to actually make that case. I feel like the Ukrainian military is very much not interested in killing its own people! And they are repeatedly asking for these weapons. They seem to think the risk is pretty low compared to the current risk civilians face. I personally think I lack the information to challenge them on that - and when I look at the civilian death totals from "remnant" munitions...

So here we have the 2018 data, it was 84 casualties, 1/3rd of whom were deaths, across the globe. That's awful! Man we should definitely work to stop that. Meanwhile as of May the Ukraine war has inflicted ~23,000 civilian casualties on the population of the country. That is way way more, and is almost certainly an undercounting. You don't just get to go "one death is too many", 23k casualties is too many. You instead have to weigh the increased risk compared to the increased capabilities.

Which, again, I don't have much of a clue about. But I think the government of Ukraine can absolutely make that call better than me.

What we need to do is convince all the disney adults in america that high speed rail would be a preferable way of getting to disneyworld compared to driving or flying. We could maybe harness their fondness for the monorail or something, but this is a group of people that has time, income, and passion that we could leverage. If we could direct 5% of the enthusiasm they have for limited edition popcorn buckets into calling their representatives and demanding high-speed interstate rail, we could get it by 2030

Posting the Hong Kong DisneyTrain, make it happen

Comic I made about doing psychedelics as a depressed trans burnout and briefly visiting another, kinder dimension. Download for PWYC on itch.io! Also on Twitter and Instagram

Episode 87, "Who Woulge Wins"

omfg i forgot that i never showed tumblr my greatest achievement. my pride and joy, my pi-ass de résistance

you're welcome

if you reblog this i am kissing you on the mouth. no that is not negotiable. we are in love now. we are dating. we are planning the wedding. i will be with you on your wedding night

I AM HERE FOR THIS CONTENT

HERE. FOR. IT.

(yes I have more.)

(ohgod I'm sorry XDDD)

funniest argument i had with a tankie abt holodomor is when i compared it to the great famine in ireland, another tragedy that happened because of imperialism, but this time western. and they seemed to understand the parallels, but then the takeaway they got from it was not "russian imperialism is as destructive as western imperialism" but "actually, the brits weren't that guilty". imagine whitewashing the soviet union so hard you start defending the british empire

This is just like that Chinese historian who was arguing that the hukou system had the same social and economic effects as apartheid labour passes and a bunch of people concluded that apartheid wasn't so bad.

My dumb Locked Tomb John Gaius fan animatic is up on youtube!

Spoilers up for the books up to Nona the Ninth.

Please check the content warnings - it’s all rendered in a cartoon style and no worse than what’s already in the books, but still.

Edit: link in case tumblr embed isn’t working: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58wcEfJuwQg

"We're talking low prices."

It's Alecto, in her favorite t-shirt that she never got to wear from another life! I do hope there's still some Nona in her somewhere, but I also fully support her on her quest for revenge. Come on, Barbie-- let's go party.

My wife is much better at predicting events in the Russia-Ukraine war than I am. Over a month before the invasion she started saying Russia was going to attack all of Ukraine, and my response was "no way they're gonna attack all of Ukraine, it doesn't work like the 19th century, this would be a really stupid and counterproductive thing to do!" And then for months she was like "this Prigozhin guy is surely gonna try to seize power" and I was like "no way, it's not the 2nd century, he would have no chance to actually succeed so going for it would be monumentally dumb".

And like I think I am starting to see the flaw in my analysis.

Okay, now my wife is saying "I bet Lukashenko is gonna do a play for power in Russia". And I'm saying that that's a totally crazy prediction that will never come true. When was the last time the ruler of a vassal state just tried to become the ruler of the metropole? would be collossally stupid thing to happen and Lukashenko is not taken seriously by anyone and would have no chance of succeeding. I think I'm right, but, well, you know.

Been recently hearing about Lukashenko and the "Union State" thing where he thought he could be elected president of a Belarus-Russian union when Yeltsin was the contender, seems silly but then I remember when Scottish Nationalist Party leader Nicola Sturgeon was the UK party leader with the highest approval rating despite her previous part in a failed independence referendum, maybe she should have become leader of Britain.

I saw the "draw your lesbian ships like this" meme and had to immediately get on it. ( ft Harrow's support skeletons bc that girl ain't lifting shit. ) ((ignore the scuffed bone anatomy pls this was just a quick doodle))

from nona the ninth:

Text:

Greatest fantasy debate of the 20th century: do Balrogs have wings?

Greatest fantasy debate of the 21st century: ⬆️

Been trying to think of a way to explain to American audiences why the 9 dash line thing is so important to SEAsians and why it's justifiable to ban the Barbie movie for it, but the closest explanation I can give is this: imagine if this painting was in the Barbie movie with no explanation and we were all just supposed to accept it without comment

I don't care if people watch the movie, I know everyone was excited for it, me included. But I'd hope in the very least we can tell people why the Vietnam ban was 100% justified. 9 dash line maps are a distillation of over a decade of Chinese imperialist oppression against SEAsian countries. Most of the world doesn't care, but that's how it is.

At least have this as a learning experience.

Basically in 2015 international courts ruled against China taking up the majority of the West Philippine / South China sea, since it was maritime territory shared between the different countries. China then ignored the ruling, destroyed the local ecosystem to build an artificial military island, and has been policing it heavily ever since.

It's like if someone moved into your shared kitchen and threatened to shoot you for trying to get food.

Since then Vietnam has had a hard line stance against them and the Philippines has had to rely on American military power to match threat for threat. We'd love to not have either of these superpower imperialist fucks looming over us but that's not the world we live in.

Anyway. That's why. If they remove it from the movie, that'll be nice, but it's a bigger statement than just a picture.

It is entirely possible to hold both of the following beliefs:

I don't think we need to say "yeah, the state should be able to determine what movies you can and can't see" to say "that's a fucked up detail in the movie"

The thing is I'm pretty sure the map in question is this

This is not a map displaying political boundaries.

From what I've heard it's not even the dashes near ASia that's the issue, it's this

Which as far as I can tell is meant to be Greenland. But the shape of that ship's route around the white blob (a whale? an iceberg?) looked too much like the nine dash line or something. Despite the fact that it's between England and New York.

I'm seeing other people saying it might be an actual map Barbie sees when she goes to the real world. I based the post on what some Vietnamese friends were saying on discord. Like apparently they've seen nationalists on facebook complaining about the Greenland bit. I can't read Vietnamese so I don't know exactly what's said in the screenshot in the readmore but it looks like their issue is that island between Greenland(?) and England is meant to be Borneo(?)

So no idea if the kid's map was actually the issue for the censors, or if it's just a bunch of idiots on facebook.

color wheel characters as suggested by my good pals

Been trying to think of a way to explain to American audiences why the 9 dash line thing is so important to SEAsians and why it's justifiable to ban the Barbie movie for it, but the closest explanation I can give is this: imagine if this painting was in the Barbie movie with no explanation and we were all just supposed to accept it without comment

I don't care if people watch the movie, I know everyone was excited for it, me included. But I'd hope in the very least we can tell people why the Vietnam ban was 100% justified. 9 dash line maps are a distillation of over a decade of Chinese imperialist oppression against SEAsian countries. Most of the world doesn't care, but that's how it is.

At least have this as a learning experience.

Basically in 2015 international courts ruled against China taking up the majority of the West Philippine / South China sea, since it was maritime territory shared between the different countries. China then ignored the ruling, destroyed the local ecosystem to build an artificial military island, and has been policing it heavily ever since.

It's like if someone moved into your shared kitchen and threatened to shoot you for trying to get food.

Since then Vietnam has had a hard line stance against them and the Philippines has had to rely on American military power to match threat for threat. We'd love to not have either of these superpower imperialist fucks looming over us but that's not the world we live in.

Anyway. That's why. If they remove it from the movie, that'll be nice, but it's a bigger statement than just a picture.

It is entirely possible to hold both of the following beliefs:

I don't think we need to say "yeah, the state should be able to determine what movies you can and can't see" to say "that's a fucked up detail in the movie"

The thing is I'm pretty sure the map in question is this

This is not a map displaying political boundaries.

From what I've heard it's not even the dashes near ASia that's the issue, it's this

Which as far as I can tell is meant to be Greenland. But the shape of that ship's route around the white blob (a whale? an iceberg?) looked too much like the nine dash line or something. Despite the fact that it's between England and New York.