Iran

I had to write a paper on Iran yesterday, analyzing how different media sources portrayed the same current event and what that meant for understanding a non-transparent country like Iran.

I was sad with what I found. There is so much bias in the media, from all sides. The western media sources such as The New York Times, CNN, The Washington Post, all showed Iran in such a negative light and only focused on any anti-US rhetoric Iran produced. Iranian news sources, of course, were pro-Iran and sharply in defense of Iranian policies. There were very few sources that painted a clear picture. (If you’re interested, The Tehran Bureau and insideIRAN were two good ones I found.)

It just saddens me because the media can give us opportunities for peaceful negotiation if just straight facts were reported. But instead, now we just have more reasons for confrontations resulting from poor communication and misunderstandings.

I would hate to think that a war with Iran would come out of just that. It’s just not worth it. 

Paul Ryan Adviser Wants Congress to Authorize War With Iran...Great, Another War We'll Be In For Years to Come!!!

thinkprogress.org

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) isn’t exactly the most sophisticated observer of international politics. As such, he was treated to a crash course in foreign policy by the Romney campaign prior to his selection as the GOP Vice Presidential nominee. Now, one of Ryan’s key advisers during that briefing period is calling for congressional authorization for war with Iran.

Elliott Abrams, a former Bush Administration official who focuses on the Middle East, took to the pages of the Weekly Standard to argue that neither Iranians nor Israelis think the Obama administration is “serious” about attacking Iran, and that the only real way to convince them is having Congress vote for war:

In any event, the debate over a joint resolution will clarify who stands where. At the moment, no one is persuaded that the United States will use force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. That situation worries Israelis and emboldens Iranians, not the outcome we want. A clear statement now that is backed by the nominees of both parties and elicits widespread support in Congress would demonstrate that, whatever the election results, American policy is set. That is the best (and may be the only) way to avoid an Israeli strike in the near future and the best (and may be the only) way to persuade Iran to negotiate seriously. And if we are unwilling as a nation to state that we will act to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, that conclusion should solidify support for what would then become the inevitable Israeli strike. A refusal by the White House to seek such a joint resolution would itself suggest that, while “all options are on the table,” the likelihood is that that is precisely where they will remain.

The weight of the evidence (according to the Pentagon and the U.N.) suggests that, far from emboldening Iran, the Obama administration’s diplomacy and sanctions policy has significantly slowed Iran’s nuclear policy relative to the baseline left by the Bush administration. Abrams’ claim that Iran is more likely to come to the table if threatened by war is also highly improbable, given that the specter of an American attack is one of the regime’s most effective tools for dealing with its domestic problems. Finally, the Obama administration has already taken a number of steps that credibly establish the possibility of an U.S. strike — having Congress authorize military force would likely add nothing to these steps other than lock the United States down a path that could result in a costly war.

Indeed, Romney appears to at least implicitly know this. He’s been unable to distinguish his Iran policy from Obama’s and has recently pushed back against the idea that Congress should authorize military force, arguing that the President is already legally empowered to launch strikes unilaterally. However, the fact that an adviser who played a key role in molding Ryan’s foreign policy views is defending dangerous brinksmanship raises serious questions about whether the Romney-Ryan policy might tilt hawkish once in office. Indeed, one commonality amongst the advising corps is a worrying willingness to casually advocate the use of American military force.

It’s also important to note that, Abrams’ distortions notwithstanding, President Obama has said Iran with a nuclear weapon poses a threat to regional and international security has made a “categorical statement” that his administration’s policy is preventing Iran from acquiring one. Western intelligence estimates give the West time to pursue a dual-track approach of building international pressure and using diplomacy to resolve the crisis. Questions about the efficacy and potential consequences of a strike have led U.S. officials to declare that diplomacy is the “best and most permanent way” to resolve the crisis.

How an Israeli Strike on Iran could radically weaken Israel

juancole.com

1. Iran is now threatening to strike at any third country in the region that aided Israel in an airstrike on Iran. The aftermath is therefore likely to be further conflict in the region.

2. Oil prices will spike. I imagine you could easily see $150 a barrel or maybe even more. This development could throw the US and Europe back into deep recession.

3. Hizbullah would likely launch rockets, causing at least severe inconvenience to some 1/4 of the Israeli public, which might well have to move house again, and possibly much worse if Hizbullah is able, as they claim, to target toxic gas storage in Haifa or even reactor at Dimona with modified Chinese silkworms. It is not clear that the Israeli public would appreciate all that trouble; they didn’t, in former PM Ehud Olmert’s case (his 2006 Lebanon war was extremely unpopular and his party is no longer in power). A Hizbullah official said on Sunday that Hizbullah would be willing to go to war with Israel if Syria were attacked, so it seems likely the same thing would hold true with regard to Iran.

4. Israel would destroy Lebanon infrastructure in revenge for Hizbullah rocket attacks.

Juan Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan.  Please read the other six points at his blog.  

“red lines”

(From the New York Times: U.S. Backers of Israel Pressure Obama Over Policy on Iran)

While defenders of Israel rally every year at the meeting of the pro-Israel lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, this year’s gathering has been supercharged by a convergence of election-year politics, a deepening nuclear showdown and the often-fraught relationship between the president and the Israeli prime minister. Mr. Obama and Mr. Netanyahu will both speak to the group, known as Aipac, as will the three leading Republican presidential candidates, who will appear via satellite from the campaign trail on the morning of Super Tuesday. Republicans have seized on Iran’s nuclear ambitions to accuse Mr. Obama of being weak in backing a staunch ally and in confronting a bitter foe.

The pressure from an often-hostile Congress is also mounting. A group of influential senators, fresh from a meeting with Mr. Netanyahu in Jerusalem, has called on Mr. Obama to lay down sharper criteria, known as “red lines,” about when to act against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

…. 

To counter Aipac’s message, J Street has circulated a video on Capitol Hill, highlighting American and Israeli military experts who have voiced doubts about the efficacy of a strike on Iran.

“We are saying there needs to be time for enhanced sanctions and diplomacy to work,” said Jeremy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street. “We’re trying to calm down the drumbeat of war.”

“...three and a half years after George W. Bush left office, his successor continues to insist that Iran surrender to Washington’s diktats or face attack. By doing so, Obama is locking America into a path that is increasingly likely to result in yet another U.S.-initiated war in the Middle East during the first years of the next presidential term. And the damage that war against Iran will inflict on America’s strategic position could make the Iraq debacle look trivial by comparison. ”

—Hillary Mann Leverett and Flynt Leverett

Clearing some things up

I’ve been hearing claims that Iran is building a nuclear program. A lot of people are saying this is 2003 all over again-this is exactly what Bush did with Iraq, they say. Others are saying a nuclear Iran is a threat and there’s hints at military action against Iran to prevent this.

I’m in the middle on this issue. First, Iran is building a nuclear program. NATO report stating Iran is building a nuclear program here: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/world/2011/IAEA-Nov-2011-Report-Iran.pdf

 It’s reported Iran says their nuclear program is for electricity production. Source:http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/nuclear_program/index.html

From what I’ve read, Iran doesn’t seem to be hiding its nuclear program, so to say they’re not and it’s all war propaganda is to live in denial.

Before assuming I’m saying “Iran’s building nuclear weapons! Stop them by all means necessary!” hear me out. Iran may be honest and may be having a nuclear build up for energy purposes. Or they may be building nuclear weapons. But if they are building nuclear weapons, what does that mean?

This is a text book security dilemma- maybe Iran isn’t planning an attack, but is trying to feel more secure. It may sound naive, but with so many countries having nuclear weapons, it’d make sense to build up their own.

This is what I’ve been getting at, and could’ve said from the start but would’ve nothing to support my stance: Iran is increasing its nuclear capabilities, unlike Iraq circa 2003. It’s unclear if this proliferation is for peace or military, but neither are justifications for military action. The US can’t afford more war, and I never like pre-emptive military action.

PS: While researching this, I found that the US has put themselves in another situation where globalization and alliances have bit them in the ass. Like supplying weapons  during the Cold War to the same people the US is now trying to combat, the US helped Iran build a nuclear program until 1979. 

Iran’s nuclear program started with the support, encouragement and participation of the United States, …

At a time when Iran’s nuclear program is portrayed as an imminent threat, its interesting to see that the program actually started long ago, with the support and participation of the same countries that today insist Iran abandon its nuclear program.

Source: http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2006/05/blasts_from_the.html

US Troops going to Israel

whiteoutpress.com

January 2, 2012. Jerusalem. In one of the most blacked-out stories in America right now, the US military is preparing to send thousands of US troops, along with US Naval anti-missile ships and accompanying support personnel, to Israel. It took forever to find a second source for confirmation of this story and both relatively mainstream media outlets are in Israel. With one source saying the military deployment and corresponding exercises are to occur in January, the source providing most of the details suggests it will occur later this spring.

Calling it not just an “exercise”, but a “deployment”, the Jerusalem Post quotes US Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc, Commander of the US Third Air Force based in Germany. The US Commander visited Israel two weeks ago to confirm details for “the deployment of several thousand American soldiers to Israel.” In an effort to respond to recent Iranian threats and counter-threats, Israel announced the largest ever missile defense exercise in its history. Now, it’s reported that the US military, including the US Navy, will be stationed throughout Israel, also taking part. …

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