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For Super Tuesday, there are the following contests:
State Contest type delegates
Alaska Caucus 27
Georgia WTA:D WTA:S 76
Idaho Caucus 32
Massachusetts proportional primary 41
North Dakota Caucus 28
Ohio WTA:D WTA:S 66
Oklahoma WTA:D WTA:S 43
Tennessee Complicated 58
Vermont WTA:D WTA:S 17
Virginia WTA:D WTA:S 49
Unpledged Caucus delegates at stake: 67
Pledged Primary delegates: 329 + 41 in Massachusetts
Wyoming is listed as being in Super Tuesday by the NYT. The Caucuses have completed though as of the 29th so I don’t know why this is.
Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Massachusetts have straight forward contests. Massachusetts has a 15% threshold to qualify to win delegates which are then allocated proportionally.
Super Tuesday has no true Winner-take-all states like Arizona or Florida or simple winner take all district or statewide rules like South Carolina.
Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, Vermont, and Virginia have similar primaries. Congressional district delegates are awarded three per district. If you are over a vote threshold in the district, you win delegates in the district and if you are over 50% you win all three. Vote thresholds are 20% in these states, except Oklahoma, which is 15%. Georgia’s rules spell out that if you are the winner in the district you receive two delegates, and the runner-up receives one. I suppose it is possible for a district to award one delegate two three candidates but I don’t know how likely that is with the threshold requirement.
Romney receives three delegates.
In Georgia: Romney would receive two and Santorum one. In any of the other states: Romney Santorum and Paul would each earn one delegate (as I understand the rules).
Romney receives two, Santorum one (explicitly in Georgia). in Oklahoma: Romney, Santorum and Paul each get one (as I understand the rules).
The same rules are extrapolated to statewide delegates. If a candidate gets over 50% he wins them all. If under 50% but above the threshold, he proportionally shares them with the other candidates who did the same.
Tennessee uses the same rules as Georgia except to win all a district delegates or all statewide delegates, you need 66% of the vote with a 20% threshold. So if Romney wins 65% of a district and Santorum wins 21%, Romney will still only receive two delegates and Santorum receives one.
Additionally in several states, three delegates are usually unbound and can endorse anyone they want. This is true for Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ohio, Virginia BUT not Vermont or Georgia.
Clear as mud, right?
Virginia only has two candidates on the ballot, Paul and Romney. Romney is the clear favorite in all polling and I expect him to win all of Virginia’s delegates, especially now with Eric Cantor’s endorsement.
I expect states to go to these candidates:
Romney: Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia (all)
Santorum: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota
Here are some polls:
Poll Date Sample Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/23 - 3/1 — 39.3 23.8 20.5 6.0 Gingrich +15.5
Mason-Dixon 2/28 - 3/1 625 LV 38 24 22 3 Gingrich +14
Landmark/Rosetta Stone 3/1 - 3/1 950 LV 42 22 16 5 Gingrich +20
Rasmussen Reports 3/1 - 3/1 750 LV 38 26 20 7 Gingrich +12
SurveyUSA 2/23 - 2/26 457 LV 39 23 24 9 Gingrich +15
Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/29 - 3/2 — 34.0 31.3 15.7 12.0 Santorum +2.7
NBC News/Marist 2/29 - 3/2 820 LV 34 32 15 13 Santorum +2
Rasmussen Reports 3/1 - 3/1 750 LV 33 31 15 11 Santorum +2
Quinnipiac 2/29 - 3/1 517 LV 35 31 17 12 Santorum +4
Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/13 - 3/3 — 37.3 23.0 14.7 11.3 Santorum +14.3
Rasmussen Reports 3/3 - 3/3 750 LV 34 30 18 8 Santorum +4
Middle Tn. State U. 2/13 - 2/25 196 A 40 19 13 11 Santorum +21
Tennessean/Vanderbilt 2/16 - 2/22 815 RV 38 20 13 15 Santorum +18
Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/8 - 2/21 — 41.0 20.5 20.0 7.5 Santorum +20.5
Rasmussen Reports 2/21 - 2/21 750 LV 43 18 22 7 Santorum +21
Sooner Poll 2/8 - 2/16 300 LV 39 23 18 8 Santorum +16
Libertarianism is a First World Luxury
- 82% of libertarians are white.
- 59% of libertarians are male. This makes them the most disproportionately male ideological group in the country.
- 57% have either attended or graduated college.
- 33% are between the ages of 18 and 29.
- 31% make more than $75,000 per year. This makes libertarianism the most popular political ideology of the rich.
As we can see from the above statistics, libertarians are mostly rich young white guys who, compared to most other Americans, live comfortable and financially-secure lives. Why does this matter? Because it indicates that those who want to eliminate welfare, universal health care, and other government assistance programs will likely never have to rely on any of these programs themselves.Libertarianism is an ideology supported by people who will not feel the impact of many of its policies. The exception to this, of course, is that libertarians want to cut taxes for themselves at the expense of the social safety net, which is a standard feature of every modern democratic country on earth.
It’s also interesting to note when libertarianism (and its sister ideology, “limited government conservatism”) gained popularity in American politics and culture. It wasn’t during the Industrial Revolution, when a huge influx of wealth brought about deplorable working conditions and extremely low wages. It wasn’t in the midst of the Great Depression, when many families were unemployed and starving. It wasn’t during World War II, when interventionism was necessary to protect our safety as well as the peace and security of much of the rest of the world.
It was after all of our major problems were over, during the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. It was after America had won the Cold War, passed the Civil Rights Act, and was able to provide a decent life to most citizens. This is when libertarianism became popular: during a time of peace and prosperity. One simply does not find a substantial libertarian movement in poor and developing countries.
Of course, before the rise of libertarianism, there were some Americans calling for less regulation and lower taxes. They were, in the words of Republican Dwight Eisenhower, a “tiny splinter group,” of “Texas oil millionaires….their number is negligible and they are stupid.”
I hate to disagree with Ike, but I don’t think libertarians are, in any sense of the word, “stupid.” The research mentioned above proves that they are well educated and financially successful. I do believe, however, that the popularity of libertarianism among the richest Americans should cause all small government advocates to pause and question the company they keep. If libertarianism is, in fact, good for the poor, why then has it always been the ideology of the rich?
“Transnational progressives have also judged the Bush administration criminal for having used “enhanced interrogation techniques” — which they denounce as illegal “torture” — to pressure Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and a few other top al-Qaeda commanders to reveal what they knew of ongoing terrorist plots and operations. (A total of about 30 unlawful combatants were subjected to coercive tactics; exactly three were waterboarded — none at Guantanamo.) By contrast, criticism of President Obama — for ordering the killing of Osama bin Laden and using drones against terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen — has been muted. ”—
Clifford May writing in National Review
The latter half of this argument is insightful if not wholly accurate. Had Bush ordered the killing of Osama and drone strikes across the region, progressive outcry would have been brutal. The former half of this article, however, is very problematic.
May’s use of the term “trasnational progressive” clearly seeks to project the idea of human rights in a negative manner. To make a long argument short, we can’t treat terrorists nicely because they just aren’t like us.
I disagree. No matter how vile the man, terrorists remain human. Lowering our standards of human decency when dealing with terrorists ultimately demeans us more than them. We should criticize torture because it goes against the best ideas of our society. We are better than that. Let’s act like it.
100,000,000 workers grind India to a halt in one of world's biggest strikes ever
One of the world’s largest ever strikes began at midnight on Monday 27th Feb and will end at midnight tonight. Up to 100,000,000 Indian workers from different sectors and industries are calling for a national minimum wage, permanent jobs, and much more.
Super PACs aggressively spend ahead of Super Tuesday. Super.
- $10 million in Super Tuesday ads bought by Super PACs source
» Four states getting strongest focus: Ten states are holding primaries and caucuses in a couple of days, but the ones that the GOP candidates are really focused on? Ohio, Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Much of the advertising seems to be focused on trashing other candidates, with both Mitt-and-Newt-affiliated Super PACs attacking Rick Santorum — who is currently leading in Ohio. In other news, Mitt won a caucus in Washington on Saturday with Ron Paul scoring second place, though the caucus is non-binding.
Will cons stay true to their values?
Despite the wonderful comic opera (which I am enjoying to no end) of the Republican Primary race, it looks like Mitt Romney will be the ultimate sacrificial lamb of the GOP. I have always thought this would be the case and so has President Obama and his re-election committee.
The question now is whether the true conservatives and Tea Partiers (who back Santorum and hate Romney) will stay true to there values and not vote for someone they detest? And what about the nut jobs that still back Newt and Rand Paul’s dad? How will they vote if they vote at all?
I think, that when it gets down to it they will all abandon their lofty ideals simply because the ideals are fake to begin with. They are fake because they are all being espoused to cover up the racism that is behind them. These camps all hate the idea of a black Democrat holding office so much that they will side with the devil himself to keep him out of office. It think they already have despite their protestations of faith and family values because racism is surely the work of the devil. Even if, like me, you do not believe in this fantasy figure, the way he reportedly works surely makes the idea of hating someone just because of the color of their skin a true ideal.
So it will be Mitt against the President and he will still lose because I don’t think there is enough hate in America to elect him.
If you read my earlier posts, you know that I could actually stand to have Mitt as the POTUS, but only as a second choice.
I don’t think he is a true conservative (and neither do the true conservatives) and being the former Governor of Massachusetts tells me he never will be. But I do know that he will dance with the devil to become the POTUS, even if he does not end up going home with him.