What's Happening in Syria Now.

motherjones.com

The situation has grown more dire since Assad’s regime began a violent crackdown last March—including reports of hundreds massacred this week.

On February 3, 2012, multiple reports from activists inside Syria described massive shelling and an army offensive in the central Syrian city of Homs. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights puts the casualty figure at over a hundred, and claims many hundreds more are injured; other estimates have the body count at 200 and climbing. Activists report that “nail bombs” were used by the army during a mortar attack on the Khaldiyeh neighborhood. The reports come thirty years after the infamous Hama Massacre was conducted by the Syrian army over the course of four weeks in February 1982 (the operation was ordered by President Hafez al-Assad, father and predecessor to Syria’s current ruler Bashar al-Assad).

The UN Security Council is scheduled to convene Saturday morning to discuss a much-debated draft resolution on Syria. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is set to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov that same morning in Munich.

Here’s a rundown of the deteriorating situation in Syria:

The basics: Syria is an Arab country with more than 22 million people; it borders many of the major players in the Middle East (Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey) and is roughly the size of North Dakota. Syria famously lost the Golan Heights to Israel in 1967, during the Arab-Israeli war; negotiations between the two countries have been minimal in recent years. Like many countries in the region, Syria’s main export is oil. Unlike Saudi Arabia or Iran, however, Syria’s oil reserves are relatively small; it ranks 33rd in the world. Syria is home to a smorgasbord of ethnicities and religions: Arabs, Kurds, Christians, Sunnis, Alawites, and Druze. The capital, Damascus, is a bustling metropolis (many believe it to be the oldest continuously inhabited city in the world) but is not the site of the country’s most significant protests (though rebels captured parts of the city in late January). That city, Hama, is the country’s fourth-largest, with fewer than 1 million occupants.

What’s happening now? Ever since last March, Syrians, especially those in the country’s central region, have protested the iron-fisted government headed by Bashar al-Assad. During the first week of August the Syrian army began a brutal campaign to control Hama, using tanks and troop assaults to kill citizens in a seemingly indiscriminate manner. The situation has continued to escalate in 2012. In late January, rebels known as the Free Syrian Army, reportedly took control of a portion of Damascus’ suburbs. On January 31, Syrian government forces, according to Reuters, “reasserted control” of the Damascus suburbs. Elsewhere, in Homs, a central-Syrian town with more than a million people, Syrian government forces killed nearly 100 people—activists say 55 civilians were killed—on January 31. The Free Syrian Army has fought on, asserting that “half of the country” is now effectively a no-go zone for Assad’s security forces. Since November, at least 3,000 Syrians reportedly have been killed.

Who’s in charge?: Assad has ruled Syria since 2000. His father, Hafez al-Assad, a member of the Baath Party, came to power in 1970 after leading a bloodless coup. Assad’s family came from a minority religious sect: the Alawites, an offshoot of Shia Islam. Thirty years ago, Assad launched one of the most brutal massacres in the modern history of the Middle East: His troops killed nearly 20,000 people in the city of Hama. In 2000, Hafez Assad died, and Bashar took over. To some, the shift from Hafez to Bashar suggested an opportunity (albeit a limited one) for Syria to become a more politically moderate society. Last year, Vogue magazine perpetuated that notion with a widely remarked profile of first lady Asma al-Assad published during the height of the Arab Spring. It stated that Syria was “the safest country in the Middle East.” Clearly that couldn’t have been more off-base, with Bashar apparently intent on following in his father’s footsteps.

What is the rest of the world doing about the situation? On January 31, the United Nations Security Council considered a resolution introduced by Morocco, urging Assad to resign. The prior weekend, the Arab League pulled its observers out of Syria due to continued violence. At the UN, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: “The United States urges the Security Council to back the Arab League’s demand that the Syrian Government immediately stop all attacks against civilians and guarantee the freedom of peaceful demonstrations.” Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr Al-Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, told the UN that Syria: “did not fully and immediately met (sic) its commitments to the Arab League” and that the Syrian “killing machine is still at work.” Nabil Elaraby, the secretary general of the Arab League, urged the council to adopt the sanctions, imploring: “Do not let the Syrian people down in its plight.” Russia and China, considering their own interests on the global chessboard, are likely to veto the measure. Until now, Turkey, the European Union, and the United States have all enforced strict sanctions against the Syrian government. Regardless, Russia, according to the BBC, has contracts worth an estimated $1.5 billion for weapons sales to the Syrian government. As of late January, the US has begun preparations to close its embassy in Damascus.

Should the United States now consider military involvement? Shadi Hamid, research director at the Brookings Doha Center, wrote in The Atlantic last week that the “case for intervention is strong” and that the international community “must begin considering a variety of military options.” Others, like Marc Lynch, a professor at George Washington University, say the US “should not be contemplating military intervention in Syria. Risky, costly foreign policy decisions can not simply be taken to express moral outrage.” Lynch believes a military intervention will not improve the situation in Syra, adding that “their failure would likely pave the way to something far worse.”

How do I follow what’s happening in real time? For keeping up with what’s happening in Syria—as well as most stories unfolding in the Middle East—it’s a good idea to follow the Twitter feed of Blake Hounshell, Foreign Policy’s managing editor. Ahmed Al Omran, author of the Saudi blog Saudi Jeans, and Borzou Daragahi, the Middle East reporter for the Financial Times, are also good Syria tweeps.  Al-Jazeera English, the New York Times, and the Guardian’sconstantly updated Middle East blog all provide good, up-to-date information on the situation in Syria.

[Also see our first Syria explainer from August 2011 for additional details.]

Did Climate Change Supersize Hurricane Sandy?

motherjones.com

Climate and energy journalist/guru Chris Mooney tackles the question at Mother Jones. Hurricane Sandy is a very interesting storm, with some features influenced by climate and some perhaps not. 

It brings home the point that this presidential campaign has been silent on the issue of climate, and it’s sad that it takes a storm for some people to speak up. As Chris writes:

In a campaign season that has studiously avoided the “C” word, Sandy reminds us that eventually, the weather always forces the issue.

Before you get into a climate change debate with your neighbor after the power goes out, read his summary first.

Here’s a recent thermal image from NASA’s Aqua satellite showing the “perfect storm” collision of warm ocean moisture with cold polar air, a reminder that warming oceans can only lead to more frequent collisions of this kind in the future.

Yes, it's political. Yes, it's legal bullshit. But stop ignoring that it's ALSO racial.

This wouldn’t be the first time someone took an issue that ACTUALLY IS about race and tried to transform it, and made it about something else. Ask PETA. Ask SlutWalk. Ask OWS. Ask American Atheists. Ask anyone who quotes MLK, Jr. or Malcolm X. Slavery and the Civil Rights Movement are appropriated all the time to make somebody else’s point. We’re used to it; happens all the damn time. It’s just another Tuesday.

And therein lies the problem.

The fact is that we live in a society — not just a local political climate, a *global society* — in which a man who is white and/or white-passing (which Zimmerman is, no question) can pursue, run down, and murder a Black CHILD in cold blood, whilst calling him a “f***ing coon” and an “a**hole” ON TAPE, then ADMIT he did it, claim self-defense, and not so much as be arrested for it, and where such a person can then move away and disconnect his telephone numbers and disappear, and people will feel sorry for his having to “abandon his home” and his life.

The fact is that Trayvon is another Emmet Till, he is another Troy Davis, and that there will be more Trayvon Martins until people take off their damn blinders and start talking about the real problem — that this entire nation is built on anti-Black sentiment, that some nations have always been that way, that many other nations have followed suit, and that we are SICK OF IT.

The fact is that it is NOT overreacting to respond to your people — your family, friends, neighbors, classmates, co-workers — being murdered in the street and those left behind to mourn being treated like criminals everywhere they go for no other reason than the color of their skin, and have been since Columbus first wiped out the Arawak tribe for not being willing to accept his rule on their own land. This has been going on for centuries, for f**k’s sake. I mean, I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to die for walking down the street, and I’m tired of watching it happen to my people, to Black and Brown people everywhere with no reprisal.

My daughter is Trayvon’s age. I don’t want her to die. I don’t want my 20-year-old son to die.

This might be a political platform to you. Good for you, and fan-frickin-tastic for the faptivists over at Invisible Children and the like. But people are dying. Put down your cold, calculating attitude for a minute. Stop detaching yourself from the murder of this child. This is a tragedy, not a case study. Realize this. Embrace it. You know, long enough to see that people are ACTUALLY DYING.

This is our lives you’re talking about. Show some humanity.

posted this over at Mother Jones, under a pseudonym (because I hate signing up for new websites just so I can talk about something), and in response to this guy. then I realized that I’d rather post it here. I fixed a couple of typos, and other semantic bits.

“Nonetheless, the end of US military operations in Iraq—100,000 troops have already left the country, and the final 39,000 will be gone by late December—is already being spun by some Republican critics as an admission of defeat, part of a larger attempt to paint Obama and his party as soft on national security. That narrative is increasingly divorced from reality.”

Adam Weinstein on the GOP reaction to Iraq.

“The head of the building's cleaning crew, Dean told me he'd once been put in a concentration camp by a predecessor of Slobodan Milosevic. When he saw the Statue of Liberty on his way through Ellis Island, he wept. The community meeting that night had gotten him thinking. "They are good people," he told me as we waited for the elevator. "They were here for ideas. And ideas are beautiful. That is why I love this country." Dean unlocked the door to the dark meeting room and I found my wireless card sitting on a table. He swept an arm across the room and said in awe: "They did not leave a single piece of trash." We went back downstairs and talked for awhile longer about dictators, police, and democracy in America. Then I thanked him. "No problem," he said, fumbling for his key card. "This is your home as much as mine.”

In Which Our Own Josh Harkinson Serendipitously Meets This Man After Writing About the Drumming Controversy at OWS.

10 Pro-Gun Myths, Shot Down

motherjones.com

By cutting off federal funding for research and stymieing data collection and sharing, the National Rifle Association has tried to do to the study of gun violence what climate deniers have done to the science of global warming. No wonder: When it comes to hard numbers, some of the gun lobby’s favorite arguments are full of holes.

Myth #1: They’re coming for your guns.
Fact-check: No one knows the exact number of guns in America, but it’s clear there’s no practical way to round them all up (never mind that no one in Washington is proposing this). Yet if you fantasize about rifle-toting citizens facing down the government, you’ll rest easy knowing that America’s roughly 80 million gun owners already have the feds and cops outgunned by a factor of around 79 to 1.

Myth #2: Guns don’t kill people—people kill people.
Fact-check: People with more guns tend to kill more people—with guns. The states with the highest gun ownership rates have a gun murder rate 114% higher than those with the lowest gun ownership rates. Also, gun death rates tend to be higher in states with higher rates of gun ownership.

Myth #3: An armed society is a polite society.
Fact-check: Drivers who carry guns are 44% more likely than unarmed drivers to make obscene gestures at other motorists, and 77% more likely to follow them aggressively.
• Among Texans convicted of serious crimes, those with concealed-handgun licenses were sentenced for threatening someone with a firearm 4.8 times more than those without.
• In states with Stand Your Ground and other laws making it easier to shoot in self-defense, those policies have been linked to a 7 to 10% increase in homicides.

Myth #4: More good guys with guns can stop rampaging bad guys.
Fact-check: Mass shootings stopped by armed civilians in the past 30 years: 0
• Chances that a shooting at an ER involves guns taken from guards: 1 in 5

Myth #5: Keeping a gun at home makes you safer.
Fact-check: Owning a gun has been linked to higher risk of homicide, suicide, and accidental death by gun.
• For every time a gun is used in self-defense in the home, there are 7 assaults or murders, 11 suicide attempts, and 4 accidents involving guns in or around a home.
43% of homes with guns and kids have at least one unlocked firearm.
• In one experiment, one third of 8-to-12-year-old boys who found a handgun pulled the trigger.

Myth #6: Carrying a gun for self-defense makes you safer.
Fact-check: In 2011, nearly 10 times more people were shot and killed in arguments than by civilians trying to stop a crime.
• In one survey, nearly 1% of Americans reported using guns to defend themselves or their property. However, a closer look at their claims found that more than 50% involved using guns in an aggressive manner, such as escalating an argument.
• A Philadelphia study found that the odds of an assault victim being shot were 4.5 times greater if he carried a gun. His odds of being killed were 4.2 times greater.

Myth #7: Guns make women safer.
Fact-check: In 2010, nearly 6 times more women were shot by husbands, boyfriends, and ex-partners than murdered by male strangers.
• A woman’s chances of being killed by her abuser increase more than 7 times if he has access to a gun.
• One study found that women in states with higher gun ownership rates were 4.9 times more likely to be murdered by a gun that women in states with lower gun ownership rates.

Myth #8: “Vicious, violent video games” deserve more blame than guns.
Fact-check: So said NRA executive vice president Wayne LaPierre after Newtown. So what’s up with Japan?

Myth #9: More and more Americans are becoming gun owners.
Fact-check: More guns are being sold, but they’re owned by a shrinking portion of the population.
About 50% of Americans said they had a gun in their homes in 1973. Today, about 45% say they do. Overall, 35% of Americans personally own a gun.
• Around 80% of gun owners are men. On average they own 7.9 guns each.

Myth #10: We don’t need more gun laws—we just need to enforce the ones we have.
Fact-check:
Weak laws and loopholes backed by the gun lobby make it easier to get guns illegally.
Around 40% of all legal gun sales involve private sellers and don’t require background checks. 40% of prison inmates who used guns in their crimes got them this way.
• An investigation found 62% of online gun sellers were willing to sell to buyers who said they couldn’t pass a background check.
20% of licensed California gun dealers agreed to sell handguns to researchers posing as illegal “straw” buyers.
• The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives has not had a permanent director for 6 years, due to an NRA-backed requirement that the Senate approve nominees.

Icons in gun ownership chart: Handgun designed by Simon Child, rifle designed by Nadav Barkan, shotgun designed by Ammar Ceker, all from the Noun Project

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