Moody's in a Mood
The rating agencies are at it again. Moody’s Investors Services says it’s likely to downgrade U.S. government bonds if Congress and the White House don’t reach a budget deal before we go over the so-called “fiscal cliff” on January 2, when $1.2 trillion in spending cuts and tax increases automatically go into effect.
Apparently the credit rating agencies can’t decide which is more dangerous to the U.S. economy – cutting the U.S. budget deficit too quickly, or not having a plan to cut it at all.
Last year’s worry was the latter. In the midst of partisan wrangling over raising the nation’s debt limit, Standard & Poor’s downgraded U.S. debt – warning that Republicans and Democrats didn’t have a credible plan to tame the deficit.
Now Moody’s is worried about the opposite: The spending cuts and tax increases in the Budget Control Act that will automatically kick in at the start of 2013 – unless Congress decides on a better and presumably more gradual approach — are so draconian they’ll push the economy into a recession.
The ratings agency schizophrenia is understandable. Everyone in Washington – and just about everywhere else – knows the budget deficit has to be dealt with. But anyone with half a brain (including Washington) also knows that when unemployment is high and economic growth still painfully slow, cutting the deficit too much now would make a bad situation even worse.
Remember, the real problem isn’t the deficit per se. It’s the deficit in proportion to the size of the economy. Cutting too much too soon will tip the economy into recession because it would reduce overall demand for goods and services when private demand falls way short of what’s needed. And if the economy goes into recession and begins to shrink, the ratio of deficit to the economy gets worse. That’s the austerity trap Europe has fallen into.
Even if the deficit continues to grow in proportion to the economy, we’re safe as long as those who lend money to the U.S. aren’t worried about being repaid and therefore don’t demand high interest rates in return for their loans.
By this measure, the American economy appears safer than ever. Despite all the harrumphing from the credit-rating agencies, the United States has never been able to borrow money more cheaply than it can right now. That’s because no matter how bad the deficit situation looks here, it’s worse in places like Spain and Italy. And no matter how deadlocked Congress becomes, the U.S. is still the most stable and reliable system in which to put your savings.
The fiscal cliff is a real worry. And it’s a worry precisely because the budget deficit isn’t — at least not now. When unemployment is high and growth is anemic, we need as much fiscal stimulus as we can manage.
As long as the rest of the world is willing to lend us their savings so cheaply, we’d be wise to use it to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure and our schools and parks — and thereby put more Americans back to work – rather try to cut the deficit too much and too soon.
Triple A? Comme l'andouillette? Non! Triple A pour TRIPLE ANDOUILLE!
Imaginons: un petit groupe de personnes se réclamant d’une expertise sinon incontestable tout moins contestée par personne. Ce petit groupe décide de surveiller et d’évaluer les foyers de tout le monde. Le votre, le mien, celui de votre belle-sœur. Ca vous parait être une bonne idée, alors vous laissez faire. Tout le monde, vous, moi, votre belle-sœur les laisse faire et même les paient pour ça. Bien sûr les membres de votre famille n’ont pour pas leur mot à dire dans l’histoire. Après tout, le chef c’est vous…
Et puis bon, il est quand même bon de savoir à qui on peu faire confiance. Faut pas déconner avec ça! Au prix de la baguette, quand on file un bout pain à son voisin, faut être sûr qu’il pourra vous rendre la pareille.
Bref.
Ces personnes donc évaluent votre foyer, l’éducation de vos gosses, votre train de vie, votre façon de faire à bouffer et pour affiner l’analyse, si vous êtes un bon coup ou pas. Tout ça de leur côté, avec votre bénédiction, sans que personne, ni vous ou votre famille n’ait de réelle visibilité sur les infos, ni la méthode employée pour les récolter. Mais c’est des experts hein! Alors on leur fait confiance. Comment ça ce sont les mêmes qui ont merdé quand ils ont conseillé le voisin de votre cousin? Ce sont des experts! E.X.P.E.R.T.S!
Et puis, un bon matin, ils se pointent et vous disent que certes c’était pour garantir une bonne éducation à vos enfants, agrandir votre maison pour accueillir le petit dernier, ou embaucher une aide ménagère que vous puissiez aller bosser pendant qu’elle garde le petit dernier, MAIS vous avez quand même dépensé beaucoup de votre d’argent! Cet argent que vous avez gagné tout seul comme un grand, ils vous expliquent que vous l’avez mal géré et dépensé dans des trucs totalement inutiles (comme payer des gens pour qu’ils vous critiquent sur votre façon de gérer votre thune), comment ils le savent? Ben vous les avez payés pour ça. Et comme vous les avez payés pour ça, vous écoutez ce qu’ils vous disent.
Donc diète générale pour la famille, qui rappelons le n’avait rien demandé à personne et qui parce que vous et les autres chefs de famille avez permis à des mecs munis des cravates et d’embonpoint de vous expliquer la vie, se retrouve bien dans la merde en difficulté.
Plus de sport pour l’ainé, le dentiste du petit attendra, la cadette n’aura pas de matériel scolaire cette année et exit la nounou. L’ainé n’aura qu’à mettre ses études en stand by et s’occuper de ses frères et sœurs ! MERDE à la fin ! Le Monsieur il a dit « Rigueur » sinon il nous baisse la note. (Oui comme à l’école où la maîtresse vous mettait une bonne ou une mauvaise note selon votre capacité à faire ce qu’on vous dit de faire).
Donc en plus de vous menacer de baisser votre note, il va le raconter à tout le monde ! A vos potes, à moi, à votre belle sœur … Du coup, il vous fait une sale réputation et le jour où vous traversez une période un peu plus délicate et que vous avez VRAIMENT besoin qu’on vous file une baguette pour nourrir vos gosses, y’aura personne ! Parce que grâce à ces gars que vous avez payé, la première chose à laquelle tout le monde pensera c’est « ha non ! Bien fait pour ta gueule, t’avais qu’à mieux gérer ta thune ! Rien à foutre des études de tes gosses ! Les experts ont dit que tu gérais mal et que tu ne rembourseras jamais ! Alors NON !! Casse toi ! » Ou quelque chose du genre.
Donc en gros vous aurez payé des gens qui vous enfonceront dans la merde quand vous y serez (et qui encouragent tout le monde à vous en sortir quand vous n’y êtes pas), avec un argent qui aurait pu servir à l’acheter cette foutue baguette. En plus, con chef de famille avisé que vous êtes, vous allez en plus faire des courbettes pour que ces mecs vous l’augmentent votre note. Et c’est votre famille qui morfle. ( Bien sûr, vous continuez de les payer !)
Heureusement que c’est pas pour de vrai hein ! Heureusement qu’on faisait qu’imaginer! OUF! Non mais sérieusement, en vrai, qui serait assez con pour se foutre dans une situation pareille ???
“These unelected elites get to wave their Wall Street wand and tank our economy? Why? They're not special; they're not rich! They are standard; they are poor. No wonder they're so moody.”
—STEPHEN COLBERT, on the rating agencies that threatened to lower the credit rating of the United States if it had gone into default, on The Colbert Report.
Lobbying Stat of the Day - Standard & Poor’s and others lobby government while rating its credit:
S&P’s parent company, McGraw-Hill, has spent more than $11 million on lobbying over the past 15 years, including at least $1 million on S&P-related legislation, according to an analysis of federal disclosure records by the Sunlight Foundation. The firm’s employees have also given more than $500,000 in contributions to federal candidates since 1989, primarily to Democrats, the analysis shows.
…
Taken together, the three firms have spent more than $16 million on lobbying related to financial legislation over the past decade, including more than $13 million by Moody’s alone, according to disclosure data.
“Characteristics that support the Aaa rating and that formed the basis of our decision to confirm the rating include the following: 1. The unparalleled diversity and size of the U.S. economy and its long record of relatively solid economic growth, based on both demographics and productivity. Even if the short-term economic outlook exhibits some weakness, we believe that the long term remains favorable in relation to many other advanced economies. This provides a solid base for government finance. 2. The global role of the dollar, which underpins continued demand for U.S. dollar assets, including U.S. Treasury obligations. This feature, unique to the U.S., provides unmatched access to financing, meaning that the U.S. government can support higher debt levels than other governments. Thus, while comparisons of government debt ratios form an important part of our rating analysis, the status of the dollar and the U.S. government debt market need to be taken into account when making such comparisons. Over time, the dollar’s role may be eroded, but we see no immediate threat. 3. Relative to other large Aaa-rated governments, the U.S. debt position is somewhat high, but not out of line with the positions of these countries. While the projected trend of U.S. government debt is less favorable without further deficit reduction measures, we believe that eventually such measures will be adopted. The less favorable debt ratio trend now in place is reflected in the negative outlook assigned to the rating. 4. A step in the right direction toward deficit reduction was taken on 2 August with the passage of the Budget Control Act, even if by itself it will not produce all of the deficit reduction measures necessary to reverse the debt trajectory. Although the political process has been considerably more contentious than usual in the past few months, it finally did produce an agreement. We expect further fiscal measures over time, albeit with vigorous debate over the particulars.”
—From a “Credit Rating Outlook” by MOODY’S, which decided to keep the United States’s credit rating at AAA following the debt ceiling fight — unlike Standard & Poor’s.
I think the Moody’s folks and the Standard & Poor’s folks should battle it out in Thunderdome.
Moody's - Baa3 - Memetik Kuram
Kısa keseceğim:
Ülkenin sıcak gündeminin en tepesinde Barack Obama - Tayyip Erdoğan görüşmesi ve bu akşam saatleri itibarı ile de, ekonomi çevrelerince Sıfırcı Hoca olarak adlandırılan, Moody’s tarafından yükseltilen kredi notu mevzusu var.
Şimdi, tek derdin bu muydu gardaş? diye soracak olanlar olabilir. Tabi ki tek derdim bu değil. Zaten mevzuyu bir dert olarak ele alacak da değilim.
Ülke olarak notumuz - bildiğim kadarı ile - Ba1’den Baa3 yükseldi gün itibarı ile. Bu da demek oluyor ki Türkiye, yabancı sermaye için “yatırım yapılabilir” bir ülke oldu. Dileyenin gözü aydın bu konuda bir sıkıntı yok.
Sıkıntı şurada;
Düşük kaliteli screenshot’ta görmüş olduğunuz, Ntv Ekonomi Müdürü (titrin güzelliğine bakarmısınız) Gökay Oytam’a ait: Türkiye tamamen süper lige çıktı.
Şimdi öncelikle Sayın Oytam’ın ve tabi sonralıkla sizin şu linke bakmanızı tavsiye ediyorum: Moody’s credit rating for each country - tüm ülkelerin kredi notlarını ve bu notların anlamlarını görebileceğiniz kullanımı kolay ve güzelce hazırlanmış bir infografik çıkmış olmalı karşınıza - Dikkatle bakınız.
Baktığınızı varsayarak devam ediyorum.
Öncelikle Gökay Oytam’a sonralıkla da “ay benim gölerim ağrıdı çok şeyapamadım infografiği” diyenler için bu “süper lig” mevzusunu özetleyeyim:
Çıktığımız SÜPER LİG ya da başka bir deyişle aynı seviyeye geldiğimiz ülkeler şu şekil: Azerbaycan, Barbados, Kosta Rika, Endonezya, Romanya, Tunus, Uruguay.
Yani açık konuşmak gerekirse ortada gaza gelinecek pek de büyük bir durum yok. Ancak tabi ki başta Ekonomi Bakanı ve hemen ardından hükümete yakın birçok basın kuruluşu bu haberi aşırı büyük bir mutlulukla cümle aleme yayacaklar. Yarın ki gazetlerin manşetlerinde olmasa da yine göze çarpacak bir yerlerinde muhakkak bu durumu gözlemleyebilirsiniz.
Velhasıl asıl varmak istediğim nokta şu: Milletçe mizaha büyük mesai harcadığımız hekresin malumu. Bu topraklardan nice büyük mizah ustaları çıktı. Ve tabi ki zaman içerisinde bu mizah anlayışı da evrildi, değişikliğe uğradı. Ancak öğreticiliğinden hiçbir şey kaybetmiş değil. Eskiler, eleştirmek için yahut bir şey öğretebilmek için hafif üstü kapalı, cinaslı, kelime oyunlu bir dil kullanırlardı.
Şimdikiler böyle değil. Şimdikiler mizah yaptıklarının farkında da değil. Şimdikiler asıl olarak mizahçı da değil gördüğünüz üzere. Ekonomi Müdürü vs.
Ancak hala öğretmeye devam ediyorlar.
Her anlamda memetik kurama mükemmel bir kaynak, bir deney alanı oluşturduğumuzu düşünüyor ve ülkemle bir kez daha gurur duyarken gözümden akan birkaç çiğ tanesine engel olamayarak mutluluğun getirdiği tatminkar bir gülümseme ile (betimleme konusunda dostoyevski’den iyi olduğumu bir kabul edin artık lütfen) hepinize iyi geceler, yazıyı yarın kuyacak olanlar için de iyi günler diliyorum.
İbret alınız.
“Moody’s Investors Service has confirmed the Aaa government bond rating of the United States following the raising of the statutory debt limit on August 2. The rating outlook is now negative. Moody’s placed the rating on review for possible downgrade on July 13 due to the small but rising probability of a default on the government’s debt obligations because of a failure to increase the debt limit. The initial increase of the debt limit by $900 billion and the commitment to raise it by a further $1.2-1.5 trillion by yearend have virtually eliminated the risk of such a default, prompting the confirmation of the rating at Aaa. In confirming the Aaa rating, Moody’s also recognized that today’s agreement is a first step toward achieving the long-term fiscal consolidation needed to maintain the US government debt metrics within Aaa parameters over the long run. The legislation calls for $917 billion in specific spending cuts over the next decade and established a congressional committee charged with making recommendations for achieving a further $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction over the same time period. In the absence of the committee reaching an agreement, automatic spending cuts of $1.2 trillion would become effective. In assigning a negative outlook to the rating, Moody’s indicated, however, that there would be a risk of downgrade if (1) there is a weakening in fiscal discipline in the coming year; (2) further fiscal consolidation measures are not adopted in 2013; (3) the economic outlook deteriorates significantly; or (4) there is an appreciable rise in the US government’s funding costs over and above what is currently expected.”
—From a note by Moody’s via the Wall Street Journal.
Yaaaaaaaay, we get to keep our Aaa credit rating, albeit with a negative outlook, this was soooooooo worth letting the rich and corporations keep their tax breaks at the expense of the less-well-off and Obama and the Democrats totally caving to the Republicans who totally caved to the Tea Party, yaaaaaaaay.
Foutez au placard ces agences de notation.
Je commence à en avoir assez. Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch… Ces 3 noms d’agences de notation font la pluie et le beau temps sur nos marchés financiers. C’est elles qui aggravent la situation des pays en difficultés, en dégradant leur “notes” virtuelles (ce qui entraîne la hausse des taux d’intérêts d’emprunt de l’état en question, qui voit le dit taux de ses emrpunts augmenter).
Je me suis posé la question l’autre soir de la crédibilité de nos gouvernements (tous respectifs, droite gauche confondus), lorsqu’ils nous disent d’être responsables lors de la contraction d’un prêt. “Un crédit vous engage et doit être remboursé. Vérifiez vos capacités de remboursement avant de vous engager.” Ce slogan est placardé avec obligation sur toutes les affiches, spots et vidéos lorsqu’il en est question. Mais visiblement ils ne l’appliquent pas à eux même, c’est assez contradictoire…
Maintenant revenons dans la situation chaotique dans laquelle nous sommes. Nos dirigeants rampent devant 3 cabinets de notations, qui mènent à la baguette le trois quart du monde financier de notre époque. Ces agences se sont TOUTES trompées: elles “n’ont pas vu exploser la bulle d’Internet, ni celle des télécoms, elles n’ont vu que du feu dans les comptes truqués […] de la Grèce, elles n’ont pas anticipé la crise des subprimes aux USA…”* La liste est longue.
Ne serait-il pas tant de foutre au placard ces agences de notation qui empoisonnent les marchés financiers? On ne parle que d’elles désormais et toutes les interventions faites au sujet de la crise ne sont là que pour les rassurer. Mais les rassurer de quoi? Est ce qu’elles ont une légitimité?
Je ne crois pas.
Et je pose la question.
*Extrait du très bon dossier “La Faillite” de Laurent Neumann, dans le numéro 761 de Marianne.
“Úgy tűnt, hogy Matolcsy az egészből nem ért semmit”
—mondta a konzultációról egy neve elhallgatását kérő résztvevő - Amit Matolcsy NEM mondott el a sajtótájékoztatónGlobal Markets Dip Further After Moody’s Downgrades French Banks
nytimes.comMoody’s downgraded two of France’s biggest banks Wednesday and maintained the rating for a third bank under review, highlighting the escalating worries about the European banking system and renewing jitters in the global financial markets.
