UFC 144 delivers a combination of parlay and prop value throughout the entire card. Lets look at which lines have maintained value and where we should wait for potential openings after the weigh-ins.
UFC 144: Maincard Parlays & Prop Options
As we approach this Saturday’s UFC 144, most UFC betting lines are now sharpening up and slowly revealing their final resting stop. For the maincard I’d like to highlight a few favorites that are still teetering on maintaining their sports betting value. See what UFC betting parlay we have come up with for this event.
Anthony Pettis -237 combined with Rampage Jackson at -235 comes out to around +103 when parlayed together.
Since his UFC debut loss against Clay Guida, Pettis has stated just how much of a focal point his defensive and offensive wrestling has become in training camp. Duke Roufus also made it a point to bring in former NCAA wrestling champion Ben Askren, providing Pettis with one of the more legitimate wrestling partners to sharpen his takedown defense.
For the most part I see Anthony controlling the pace in the last two rounds , as he actively stuffs Lauzon’s shots and soundly out strikes him on the feet. Fight won’t go 3 round distance at -175 is a good semi-hedge just incase Joe’s early aggression earns him a submission, although I wouldn’t rule out a late knockout for Pettis either.
With Rampage Jackson over Ryan Bader, I think it’s safe to assume that Jackson holds every advantage here aside from youth. Bader has left hints about getting back to his wrestling base in this fight but unfortunately Jackson still possesses one of the sturdiest bases in the Light Heavyweight division. At the end of the day I see Rampage out boxing and possibly even knocking Bader out within the first two rounds.
The round prop with the most value at the moment has to be on Akiyama/Shields won’t go 3 round distance at +210. Simply put, Akiyama will be a knockout threat anytime the fight stays standing and his propensity to gas late could very well result in a 3rd round submission for Jake Shields.
The second parlay I’d consider is Henderson/Edgar goes 5 round distance at -300 combined with Hunt/Kongo won’t go 3 round distance at -265, which can be bought at 5dimes.
Hunt vs Kongo is another fight where you can make a strong case where one fighter has a strong chance at an early knockout and the other will have a massive conditioning edge in a potential third round. Though with Hunt’s durability, Kongo walking away with a decision here is a slight concern.
For the UFC 144 Fight Card’s main event we’re dealing with two of the more durable lightweights to ever enter the cage. Frankie has some of the best recovery ability we’ve seen while Henderson has shown to be nearly impossible to submit or knockout. My only real concern is a wild head kick from Henderson or a possible guillotine choke, although I’m willing to lay -300 that neither happens.
When the undercard lines were released on Tuesday, the market immediately corrected a few overpriced favorites.
Vaughan Lee went from +375 to +250 and the UFC odds boards, Issei Tamura fell from +280 to +230 and Eiji Mitsuoka dropped from +200 to +165.
I think with all three opening prices we were seeing inflation based off names and prior accomplishments. All three favorites have shown to be either massively overrated or on a steep decline at this current stage in their careers.
I think there’s still just enough value to play all three SU and would even consider parlaying them together, which would come out to around +2600.
With a short ticket on the NBA tonight, let’s take a look at the two nationally televised games and parlay together two NBA picks together to maximize our payout for tonight.
Season Record: 1-3 (+2 units)
Last week’s NBA Parlay I was one blown call and one more free throw away from cashing in big. However, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. We are still playing with a two unit profit from our week one win, so let’s use it to up our bank roll substantially.
Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks
What do both these teams have in common? They both have one of their top players injured, and both of them remain questionable for tonight’s game. Even though Amare Stoudemire is “expected” to play, he did not participate in practice yesterday. The Knicks did come up with a win against the Pistons on Tuesday, which broke them out of their slump. The Chicago Bulls laid an egg last night against the 76ers in Philadelphia. Very un-Bull like were the 98 points they gave up to Philadelphia.
It is still up in the air if Luol Deng is going to play tonight. Deng is the glue guy for Chicago, and his defensive presence on the opposing team’s best player is key to Chicago’s success, and if Luol can play tonight, he will be matching up with Carmelo Anthony. Even if he doesn’t play, Chicago is still a talented defensive team and should find a way to keep Carmelo tamed.
With the Bulls having to travel after a road game last night, the total of 190 is very inviting. 14 of these two teams last 20 games have gone under the total, and 15 out of New York’s 21 games have gone under this year. The total has gone under in 7 of New York’s last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago.
My Pick: Take the UNDER
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
Earlier in the week; these two teams faced off against one another in Denver and Los Angeles outscored Denver 32-22 in the fourth quarter and ended up winning 109-105. The Clippers shot nearly 47% from down town. Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul combined to score 57 points. All of this was without the Nugget’s starting point guard Ty Lawson.
In the game this past Sunday, Caron Butler did a great job in holding Danillo Gallanari to 35% shooting. Butler left last night’s game with an injury and his status for tonight’s game is in doubt. There is no way the Clippers will shoot nearly 50% from three point land and though its possible for Billups and Paul to go off again, it won’t be for 50+ points between the two.
Joe Catalano has posted his pick in favor of the Clippers at -1 tonight. Even though the number has been pounded down, I’m sticking with the Nuggets to get some revenge tonight.
This will be Los Angeles’ fourth game in five days. Despite them being young and very deep, I see their emotional wins over the Thunder and Jazz catching up to them. Lawson will be back for the Nuggets, which will be huge in running their offense.
Denver is 8-3 ATS on the road this season and I see them coming away with a win tonight. Plus, taking away their last win against Denver, Los Angeles is only 3-11 SU against Denver in their last 14 meetings and 6-4 in the last 10.
My Pick: Nuggets +1.5
The Sharp Pick
‘under’ 190 Bulls/Knicks, parlayed with Nuggets +1 ½
What better way to profit with all of your Week 1 College Football picks than nailing a Saturday parlay? With all of the big names in action, find out how we are planning to beat the NCAAF odds makers at their own game.
Week 1 of the college football season has already kicked, off but the real fun starts when we get a huge wave of Saturday games. For teaser and parlay players, Saturday college football is like an adult version Toys ‘R Us. Where have the college football odds makers left the door open for us?
With that in mind, here’s our three-team parlay to get the party started.
Much has been made about this contest and whether or not Clemson can carry over their momentum from a stellar season last year and whether or not Auburn can rebound after a down year. Why not stick with what makes sense?
With Clemson, you never know. They were always talented underachievers until last year and although Dabo Swinney’s crew appears to have shaken that label, their BCS performance is a start reminder that says “not so fast”. Meanwhile, Auburn is definitely going to be an SEC program to be reckoned with in the Gene Chizik era but last year was about rebuilding. This year, we’re still not sure about how far along they are in that rebuilding process.
But what we do know is that both teams have very good offenses. Even with All-American Sammy Watkins out for Clemson, they still have an experienced quarterback and plenty of weapons around him. Chad Morris’ up-tempo attack is going to be a problem for Auburn, which is still a few bricks short of a load on defense.
Meanwhile, Auburn should be improved on offense with some consistency carrying over from last year.
Overall, I see at least one of the two teams hitting the 30-point mark in a back-and-forth type of game. Take the over.
The key to this contest will be quite simple: can Michigan pass the ball accurately and effectively enough to beat this Alabama defense?
Anyone thinking that the Crimson Tide defense has fallen off because they’ve sent a slew of products to the NFL will be mistaken. They aren’t rebuilding, it’s just that a number of players that performed in depth roles will now see more minutes. It’s just the next wave of stars.
That being the case, the Big Ten won’t stand a chance in a showdown with an awesome SEC defense unless they can pass the ball. That’s a big question mark. Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is more of an improviser than he is a pocket passer and he’s kept in the pocket, the Wolverines might struggle to score points.
At the same time, the Michigan defense isn’t a pushover. Alabama doesn’t have a prolific passing game themselves and they usually rely on the run anyways, so it’s not like they’ll be lighting up the scoreboard either.
Alabama is likely in control of this game from start to finish but laying two touchdowns is dicey. I don’t see Michigan getting much done offensively, so take the under.
The San Diego State Aztecs have been a program in decline for more than a year now and they face quite the challenge in Washington to start the season. First, the Aztecs lost their stellar head coach Brady Hoke to Michigan. In the offseason, they waved goodbye to their productive backfield of Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman.
Now the Aztecs continue to rebuild as they head to Husky Stadium to face a Washington team on the rise.
Many people thought the Huskies offense would suffer without Jake Locker but Keith Price has not only filled in admirably, he’s elevated this unit. The Aztecs defense hasn’t seen anything like just yet. Price will be able to move the ball up and down the field and provide plenty of points just as the Huskies always do.
But the reason we’re comfortable laying 15 points here is because the Huskies defense has been coached up this offseason. Justin Wilcox now coordinates the unit and it’s been a big focus. They’re going to play some inspired football in Week 1 and smother an Aztecs offense that doesn’t have much bite. Lay the points here.