Today dawned with a surprise three inches of snow in Montpelier. Well, not
a complete surprise, since the European model, which is often ignored,
forecast it! The other main weather models called for rain.
This snow continues the trend of storms being a fwe degrees colder than
forecast and dropping snow instead of rain. Unfortunately, this won’t save
us from the MEGATHAW. This time the European model brings things to around
42 instead of 50 on Christmas mornind, with plenty of rain and little if
any snow. The big question is whether we will lose all our snow. If the
recently-crappy GFS model is correct in its prediction of downpours
(possibly even a thunderstorm!) and temperatures reaching 50, we will
probably lose all of our snow, except for the ugly plow piles that seem to
survive every thaw. If the European model is right, some of the colder
areas like Montpelier and the Northeast Kingdom and the mountains *Might*
retain some snow - especially considering we got three fresh inches to
buffer it. But that’s a big might. Don’t get your hopes up.
Sure, there is always the off chance this coming storm will vanish or turn
into snow. I remember something similar happening in March 2011 where a
forecast rainy thaw turned out to be a surprise dump of around 2 feet of
snow. This is very unlikely this time, however - the direction this storm
is coming from, though, there is no way for it to pull in cold air, so the
best we will get is keeping some cold air smashed down between the greens
and the whites to keep Montpelier a bit colder. The snow in Burlington is
gonna be toast for sure (as usual). Colder air would mean colder rain which
might not melt all the snow. “Might”. Don’t get attached to it.
It really looks like temperatures will take a dive after next Sunday or so.
It’s a tossup if there will be more snow though, as some weather models
have a Sunday storm with some snow and others do not. So, worst case
scenario is a warm storm that melts all our snow, then a plunge in
temperatures with no snow on the ground. That was the case last year. Get
your ice skates and ice fishing gear ready just in case, because skiing may
be poor to nonexistent for a bit.
And enjoy today’s “white Christmas” because there probably won’t be one on
the 25th unless you count rapidly melting slush.