It is definitely true that any individual person’s vote is highly unlikely to alter the outcome of the election, and that it is therefore not in that person’s self-interest to vote.
However, I have to question the strategy of claiming this analysis for the liberty movement. I don’t see how things will ever change if a crucial component of libertarianism or even anarchism is the refusal to vote or participate in the political process. Everybody in the liberty movement seems to like Ron Paul. What if he actually had enough support to win, but every one of his supporters refused to vote? It seems like we should be shooting for achievable goals with great effects, like school vouchers and reduced taxes instead of just hating the government online and pretending we’re radical badasses because “fuck the police.”