Posted 10/21/2014 @ 1720 UTC
Kansas City, Missouri, not to be confused with the Western half of the city located in the state of Kansas, is located along the Missouri River in Westen Missouri. Most of the city is located on a bluff overlooking the river with the location of the airport weather station located on the Northwest corner of the city.
KMCI 211553Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 18/09 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP204 T01780089
Winds are calm, skies are clear, temperature is 64 F, dewpoint is 48 F, and pressure is 1021.1 mb.
Current surface analysis shows a weak cold front draped just to the Northeast of our area.
This cold front has barely much of a temperature difference. The core of the cold air is located North of the Great Lakes region. Looking at the visible imagery shows no evidence in terms of clouds that this front is draped across our area.
The upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure/clear skies will persist today on in to the overnight hours. Going with the NAM MOS, temperatures today should reach near 71 F and lows tomorrow should dip down to near 48 F.
Starting tomorrow morning clouds will be on the increase as the upper level ridging breaks down from an approaching fast moving trough and low level cold front. The GFS and NAM agree that tomorrow will not see any precipitation, just overcast clouds. The chance for precipitation comes during the morning hours of Thursday as the frontal boundary approaches. GFS being the oddball shows close to 1.0” of rain possible, while the NAM, CMC, and SREF agree that less than .25” will accumulate. I will stick with the majority and go with .15” to .25” of possible precip.
The high tomorrow should reach close to 73 F as the warm air advection takes place with the low falling to around 58 F.