6

Part of the Art of How to Train Your Dragon 2 book signing and gallery show/charity auction, opening Saturday, June 21st 2014, at Gallery Nucleus. Preview prints available HERE.

Staring Contest by Alessandro Carloni

Backseat Driver by Clio Chiang / Store

How to Play With Your Dragon by Ariana Oh

Tiny Tooth by Jisoo Kim / Tumblr

Visit Berk: The Land of Dragons by Jessica Forer

Toothless on Top by Ryan Savas

Horoscopes

Aries: hello

Taurus: yes

Gemini: please

Cancer: look 

Leo: up 

Virgo: the 

Libra: forer effect

Scorpio: but 

Sagittarius: I admit

Capricorn: these

Aquarius: are kinda

Pisces: fun

How often do you read a horoscope, wondering how it is it could possibly understand you so well? How often do you read a fortune cookie that happens to fit into a problem you are currently encountering, giving you hope for the future? Think its a miracle?

No — its the Forer Effect.

The Forer Effect is a little known term, that I believe everyone should understand since its so prevalent in the modern day. The Forer Effect is the observation that individuals will find that descriptions that are supposedly are tailored specifically for them are accurate, when in reality they are vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people

Some examples of the phenomenon include:

  • "psychics"
  • astrology
  • fortune telling
  • graphology (the analysis of handwriting to test personality)
  • non-comprehensive personality tests

So the next time you think the universe magically crossed paths between your life and the horoscope you read, think again — the Forer Effect is in action.

Image source: (xx)

The Enduring Fallacy of Astrology and Why Your Sign Actually Isn’t Your Sign

The veracity of astrological pseudoscience has been run through by actual science so repeatedly and thoroughly that it seems cruel to pile on. But for all the holes actual science pokes, none are a coup de grâce; Astrology remains a thriving industry with a daily column in virtually every major newspaper on the planet. Why?

Because we’re wired to believe Astrology, or perhaps more accurately, Astrology is wired for us to believe it. Humans suffer from the Forer Effect, a cognitive bias where individuals will see high accuracy in personality descriptions supposedly tailored specifically for them, but which are in fact so vague and general they apply to virtually anyone.

Moreover, scientists discovered if a subject believed the information was uniquely tailored to him or her (“what was the exact time and location of your birth?”), and came from a source of perceived authority (“the stars and the planets are telling me…”), and used positive statements (“a major advancement in your personal life is imminent”), accuracy ratings would skyrocket. This effect is also known as the Barnum Effect, named for P.T. Barnum whose circus had “something for everyone,” and astrology has perfected the way to milk it.

The Forer Effect is merely a facet of humans’ unrelenting capacity for “confirmation bias,” the tendency to favor information that confirms an individual’s beliefs or hypotheses. Confirmation bias, and its bedfellow “illusory correlation” (falsely perceiving an association between two events), supply the lifeblood of astrology, palm reading, fortune cookies, and Fox News. Yet as often as we’re hoodwinked, we still find it in our hearts to go on believing. As Shakespeare would say, “the fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.“

There’s a deeper problem with astrology though, and it’s not well known. Simply put, your horoscope is literally never correct. It can’t be, because your sign is not your sign.

To explain, let’s say you were born today. That would make you a Scorpio (Oct. 23 - Nov. 23). But you’re not a Scorpio, you’re a Libra. Here’s why: your sign is determined by what zodiac constellation the sun “appears” in on your birthday. This is most easily observed at dawn, when the sun rises into one of the zodiac’s constellations. But when the zodiac was established two thousand odd years ago, the sun would rise in a very different part of the sky than it does today. — via Good

Por qué odio el horóscopo y la astrología:

Según el horóscopo, soy Cáncer. Ni puta idea de mi ascendente, prefiero vivir al límite y no saberlo. Me gusta el riesgo, la cuerda floja. Lo malo es que me llevo fatal con los Leo. Y con los Acuario. Y con los Escorpio. De hecho, me llevo fatal con cualquiera que me diga su signo astrológico. Me llevo mal con todos.

Leed esta definición, y honestamente, valorad de 0 a 5 si es “Muy desacertada” (0) o “Muy acertada” (5).

Tienes la necesidad de que otras personas te aprecien y admiren, y sin embargo eres crítico contigo mismo. Aunque tienes algunas debilidades en tu personalidad, generalmente eres capaz de compensarlas. Tienes una considerable capacidad sin usar que no has aprovechado. Tiendes a ser disciplinado y controlado por el exterior pero preocupado e inseguro por dentro. A veces tienes serias dudas sobre si has obrado bien o tomado las decisiones correctas. Prefieres una cierta cantidad de cambios y variedad y te sientes defraudado cuando te ves rodeado de restricciones y limitaciones. También estás orgulloso de ser un pensador independiente; y de no aceptar las afirmaciones de los otros sin pruebas suficientes. Pero encuentras poco sabio el ser muy franco en revelarte a los otros. A veces eres extrovertido, afable, y sociable, mientras que otras veces eres introvertido, precavido y reservado. Algunas de tus aspiraciones tienden a ser bastante irrealistas.

En teoría, deberías haber elegido un valor entre 4 y 5. El psicólogo Bertram Forer le ofreció este texto a cada uno de sus alumnos, sin decirles que todos tenían el mismo. Les dijo que eran los resultados de un test de personalidad individual, pero lo había sacado del horóscopo del periódico del día anterior. La nota media fue un 4,26. El experimento se ha repetido varias veces y el resultado siempre ronda el 4,2. A esto se le llama “Efecto Forer” o “Falacia de Validación Personal” y básicamente consiste en “la observación de que los individuos dan aprobación de alta precisión a descripciones de su personalidad que supuestamente han sido realizadas específicamente para ellos, pero que en realidad son generales y lo suficientemente vagas como para ser aplicadas a un amplio espectro de gente”.

El texto completo lo podéis encontrar aquí (es sublime). Os recomiendo al 100% el blog del texto: Memorias del gato.

io ti conosco e ti dico chi sei:

Caro lettore, oggi voglio confidarti una cosa: io ti conosco. Sì, dico proprio a te. Tu che stai leggendo. Questo articolo è solo per te. Lo so che sei spesso critico nei confronti di te stesso eppure hai molto bisogno che gli altri ti apprezzino. Pur avendo alcune debolezze nel carattere, sei generalmente in grado di porvi rimedio. Hai molte capacità inutilizzate che non hai ancora volto a tuo vantaggio. Disciplinato e controllato all’esterno, tendi ad essere preoccupato ed insicuro dentro di te. A volte dubiti seriamente di aver preso la giusta decisione o di aver fatto la cosa giusta. Preferisci una certa dose di cambiamento e varietà e ti senti insoddisfatto se obbligato a restrizioni e limitazioni. Lo so che ti vanti di essere indipendente nelle tue idee e di non accettare le opinioni degli altri senza una prova che ti soddisfi. Ma hai scoperto che è imprudente essere troppo sinceri nel rivelarsi agli altri. A volte sei estroverso, affabile, socievole, mentre altre volte sei introverso, diffidente e riservato. Che ne pensi? Ti conosco bene, vero? Eppure no, in verità non ti conosco. Quello che ho fatto è descrivere un profilo generico che possa andare bene per un numero ampio di persone. Si chiama “Effetto Barnum”. Ed è quello che utilizzano gli astrologi, i cartomanti, maghi, indovini e fantomatici veggenti. È un tipico esempio di manipolazione psicologica. Attenzione quindi, perché una cosa è essere manipolati dall’amore altra è essere manipolati da ciarlatani.

Per approfondire: http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effetto_Forer

bibliosaurusrex said:

I admit I've never had a tarot reading, but as a psychology student I've always been a bit skeptical of that sort of thing. Usually I chalk it up to the Forer Effect (people want to believe it, so they make general statements fit their world) and similar, but I don't want to dismiss it out of hand without understanding it. Could you maybe explain to me a little what it means to you? :)

I see tarot as a tool to find guidance. I don’t believe the deck is telling me the future (though it may hint at possible outcomes), but rather I read into the cards I draw what I need to see. I read for others similarly. I give a brief idea if what another’s reading us and they are able to use that information for themselves. Does that make sense?

I’m going to ask my tarot reading followers to share their opinions in this subject also because it’s a well written topic within the community and I’m sure the varying opinions will interest you.

Also, please send me another ask if you meant this to also be one of the 20 readings. :3

okay but like
is nobody on tumblr even vaguely aware of the forer effect
is that why it seems like so many people believe in star signs and take the MBTI so seriously

anonymous said:

I work out because I don't want to be the first to die if the Croat virus breaks out. Zombieland taught me that if you don't cardio, you are zombie snack!

Haha a great motivator, indeed for all spn fans and apocalypse-preparer-forers.
#cardiotostopthecroats

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