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Part of the Art of How to Train Your Dragon 2 book signing and gallery show/charity auction, opening Saturday, June 21st 2014, at Gallery Nucleus. Preview prints available HERE.

Staring Contest by Alessandro Carloni

Backseat Driver by Clio Chiang / Store

How to Play With Your Dragon by Ariana Oh

Tiny Tooth by Jisoo Kim / Tumblr

Visit Berk: The Land of Dragons by Jessica Forer

Toothless on Top by Ryan Savas

How often do you read a horoscope, wondering how it is it could possibly understand you so well? How often do you read a fortune cookie that happens to fit into a problem you are currently encountering, giving you hope for the future? Think its a miracle?

No — its the Forer Effect.

The Forer Effect is a little known term, that I believe everyone should understand since its so prevalent in the modern day. The Forer Effect is the observation that individuals will find that descriptions that are supposedly are tailored specifically for them are accurate, when in reality they are vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people

Some examples of the phenomenon include:

  • "psychics"
  • astrology
  • fortune telling
  • graphology (the analysis of handwriting to test personality)
  • non-comprehensive personality tests

So the next time you think the universe magically crossed paths between your life and the horoscope you read, think again — the Forer Effect is in action.

Image source: (xx)

The Enduring Fallacy of Astrology and Why Your Sign Actually Isn’t Your Sign

The veracity of astrological pseudoscience has been run through by actual science so repeatedly and thoroughly that it seems cruel to pile on. But for all the holes actual science pokes, none are a coup de grâce; Astrology remains a thriving industry with a daily column in virtually every major newspaper on the planet. Why?

Because we’re wired to believe Astrology, or perhaps more accurately, Astrology is wired for us to believe it. Humans suffer from the Forer Effect, a cognitive bias where individuals will see high accuracy in personality descriptions supposedly tailored specifically for them, but which are in fact so vague and general they apply to virtually anyone.

Moreover, scientists discovered if a subject believed the information was uniquely tailored to him or her (“what was the exact time and location of your birth?”), and came from a source of perceived authority (“the stars and the planets are telling me…”), and used positive statements (“a major advancement in your personal life is imminent”), accuracy ratings would skyrocket. This effect is also known as the Barnum Effect, named for P.T. Barnum whose circus had “something for everyone,” and astrology has perfected the way to milk it.

The Forer Effect is merely a facet of humans’ unrelenting capacity for “confirmation bias,” the tendency to favor information that confirms an individual’s beliefs or hypotheses. Confirmation bias, and its bedfellow “illusory correlation” (falsely perceiving an association between two events), supply the lifeblood of astrology, palm reading, fortune cookies, and Fox News. Yet as often as we’re hoodwinked, we still find it in our hearts to go on believing. As Shakespeare would say, “the fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.“

There’s a deeper problem with astrology though, and it’s not well known. Simply put, your horoscope is literally never correct. It can’t be, because your sign is not your sign.

To explain, let’s say you were born today. That would make you a Scorpio (Oct. 23 - Nov. 23). But you’re not a Scorpio, you’re a Libra. Here’s why: your sign is determined by what zodiac constellation the sun “appears” in on your birthday. This is most easily observed at dawn, when the sun rises into one of the zodiac’s constellations. But when the zodiac was established two thousand odd years ago, the sun would rise in a very different part of the sky than it does today. — via Good

Por qué odio el horóscopo y la astrología:

Según el horóscopo, soy Cáncer. Ni puta idea de mi ascendente, prefiero vivir al límite y no saberlo. Me gusta el riesgo, la cuerda floja. Lo malo es que me llevo fatal con los Leo. Y con los Acuario. Y con los Escorpio. De hecho, me llevo fatal con cualquiera que me diga su signo astrológico. Me llevo mal con todos.

Leed esta definición, y honestamente, valorad de 0 a 5 si es “Muy desacertada” (0) o “Muy acertada” (5).

Tienes la necesidad de que otras personas te aprecien y admiren, y sin embargo eres crítico contigo mismo. Aunque tienes algunas debilidades en tu personalidad, generalmente eres capaz de compensarlas. Tienes una considerable capacidad sin usar que no has aprovechado. Tiendes a ser disciplinado y controlado por el exterior pero preocupado e inseguro por dentro. A veces tienes serias dudas sobre si has obrado bien o tomado las decisiones correctas. Prefieres una cierta cantidad de cambios y variedad y te sientes defraudado cuando te ves rodeado de restricciones y limitaciones. También estás orgulloso de ser un pensador independiente; y de no aceptar las afirmaciones de los otros sin pruebas suficientes. Pero encuentras poco sabio el ser muy franco en revelarte a los otros. A veces eres extrovertido, afable, y sociable, mientras que otras veces eres introvertido, precavido y reservado. Algunas de tus aspiraciones tienden a ser bastante irrealistas.

En teoría, deberías haber elegido un valor entre 4 y 5. El psicólogo Bertram Forer le ofreció este texto a cada uno de sus alumnos, sin decirles que todos tenían el mismo. Les dijo que eran los resultados de un test de personalidad individual, pero lo había sacado del horóscopo del periódico del día anterior. La nota media fue un 4,26. El experimento se ha repetido varias veces y el resultado siempre ronda el 4,2. A esto se le llama “Efecto Forer” o “Falacia de Validación Personal” y básicamente consiste en “la observación de que los individuos dan aprobación de alta precisión a descripciones de su personalidad que supuestamente han sido realizadas específicamente para ellos, pero que en realidad son generales y lo suficientemente vagas como para ser aplicadas a un amplio espectro de gente”.

El texto completo lo podéis encontrar aquí (es sublime). Os recomiendo al 100% el blog del texto: Memorias del gato.

io ti conosco e ti dico chi sei:

Caro lettore, oggi voglio confidarti una cosa: io ti conosco. Sì, dico proprio a te. Tu che stai leggendo. Questo articolo è solo per te. Lo so che sei spesso critico nei confronti di te stesso eppure hai molto bisogno che gli altri ti apprezzino. Pur avendo alcune debolezze nel carattere, sei generalmente in grado di porvi rimedio. Hai molte capacità inutilizzate che non hai ancora volto a tuo vantaggio. Disciplinato e controllato all’esterno, tendi ad essere preoccupato ed insicuro dentro di te. A volte dubiti seriamente di aver preso la giusta decisione o di aver fatto la cosa giusta. Preferisci una certa dose di cambiamento e varietà e ti senti insoddisfatto se obbligato a restrizioni e limitazioni. Lo so che ti vanti di essere indipendente nelle tue idee e di non accettare le opinioni degli altri senza una prova che ti soddisfi. Ma hai scoperto che è imprudente essere troppo sinceri nel rivelarsi agli altri. A volte sei estroverso, affabile, socievole, mentre altre volte sei introverso, diffidente e riservato. Che ne pensi? Ti conosco bene, vero? Eppure no, in verità non ti conosco. Quello che ho fatto è descrivere un profilo generico che possa andare bene per un numero ampio di persone. Si chiama “Effetto Barnum”. Ed è quello che utilizzano gli astrologi, i cartomanti, maghi, indovini e fantomatici veggenti. È un tipico esempio di manipolazione psicologica. Attenzione quindi, perché una cosa è essere manipolati dall’amore altra è essere manipolati da ciarlatani.

Per approfondire: http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effetto_Forer

anonymous said:

Why do you believe in Astrology? I'm not trying to start a fight, just, it'd be rather unwise of me to act upon a one-sided opinion. Have you read about something called, Forer effect in psychology? Of course you relate to your signs, we all do. I'm supposed to "be" a Sagittarius, yet 1/2 traits of one don't apply to me, because all 12 of them are a paradox. Made up of two opposite adjectives, although we (humans) are biased and my own brain fails me in observing. I can't fit all arguments here.

i didnt know it was called the forer effect but its that thing you do where you just pick out the things that apply to you and then think its TOTALLY you right??

well the thing is theres 12 archetypes but humans are obviously more complex than that, we do have a whole astrological chart that is complex and culture/gender/experiences play into who we become..

a person is not just a sagittarius. that would mean theres 12 kinds of people in the world. thats stupid and nobody believes that.

to me astrology isnt even belief anymore its just a symbolic language that explains the patterns of the universe. the more you learn about it the more you see it manifest everywhere, its like you have the ability to describe reality with this tool its so weird

bohemianrider replied to your post:Hehe, you are a delight, Psychology Student.

But what are you views of the zodiac personality profiles? Mean sure, I don’t fit Cancer perfectly but that because I’m cusp born so it all makes sense.

I am so glad you asked this, BR, and I want to be clear that this is not personal attack on anyone who buys into astrology and/or any of the other topics I’ll be covering in this reply. This post only represents my views and opinions (and some sciencey stuff for support) and welcome a conversation about it. If anyone is interested in any citations or references, please let me know. :)

::cracks knuckles:: Here we go…

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Hemp Fest returns to Caras Park

Hemp Fest returns to Caras Park

MISSOULA – Folks at Caras Park enjoyed live music and unique products in downtown Missoula on Saturday afternoon.

The 19th annual Hemp Fest featured live music, with several local vendors selling products like clothing and cosmetics – all made of hemp.

Hemp is a part of the Cannibus plant, but it is not smokable and is used to make several household products.

Event coordinators Jaqelyn Krauf,…

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