forere

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Part of the Art of How to Train Your Dragon 2 book signing and gallery show/charity auction, opening Saturday, June 21st 2014, at Gallery Nucleus. Preview prints available HERE.

Staring Contest by Alessandro Carloni

Backseat Driver by Clio Chiang / Store

How to Play With Your Dragon by Ariana Oh

Tiny Tooth by Jisoo Kim / Tumblr

Visit Berk: The Land of Dragons by Jessica Forer

Toothless on Top by Ryan Savas

The Enduring Fallacy of Astrology and Why Your Sign Actually Isn’t Your Sign

The veracity of astrological pseudoscience has been run through by actual science so repeatedly and thoroughly that it seems cruel to pile on. But for all the holes actual science pokes, none are a coup de grâce; Astrology remains a thriving industry with a daily column in virtually every major newspaper on the planet. Why?

Because we’re wired to believe Astrology, or perhaps more accurately, Astrology is wired for us to believe it. Humans suffer from the Forer Effect, a cognitive bias where individuals will see high accuracy in personality descriptions supposedly tailored specifically for them, but which are in fact so vague and general they apply to virtually anyone.

Moreover, scientists discovered if a subject believed the information was uniquely tailored to him or her (“what was the exact time and location of your birth?”), and came from a source of perceived authority (“the stars and the planets are telling me…”), and used positive statements (“a major advancement in your personal life is imminent”), accuracy ratings would skyrocket. This effect is also known as the Barnum Effect, named for P.T. Barnum whose circus had “something for everyone,” and astrology has perfected the way to milk it.

The Forer Effect is merely a facet of humans’ unrelenting capacity for “confirmation bias,” the tendency to favor information that confirms an individual’s beliefs or hypotheses. Confirmation bias, and its bedfellow “illusory correlation” (falsely perceiving an association between two events), supply the lifeblood of astrology, palm reading, fortune cookies, and Fox News. Yet as often as we’re hoodwinked, we still find it in our hearts to go on believing. As Shakespeare would say, “the fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.“

There’s a deeper problem with astrology though, and it’s not well known. Simply put, your horoscope is literally never correct. It can’t be, because your sign is not your sign.

To explain, let’s say you were born today. That would make you a Scorpio (Oct. 23 - Nov. 23). But you’re not a Scorpio, you’re a Libra. Here’s why: your sign is determined by what zodiac constellation the sun “appears” in on your birthday. This is most easily observed at dawn, when the sun rises into one of the zodiac’s constellations. But when the zodiac was established two thousand odd years ago, the sun would rise in a very different part of the sky than it does today. — via Good

How often do you read a horoscope, wondering how it is it could possibly understand you so well? How often do you read a fortune cookie that happens to fit into a problem you are currently encountering, giving you hope for the future? Think its a miracle?

No — its the Forer Effect.

The Forer Effect is a little known term, that I believe everyone should understand since its so prevalent in the modern day. The Forer Effect is the observation that individuals will find that descriptions that are supposedly are tailored specifically for them are accurate, when in reality they are vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people

Some examples of the phenomenon include:

  • "psychics"
  • astrology
  • fortune telling
  • graphology (the analysis of handwriting to test personality)
  • non-comprehensive personality tests

So the next time you think the universe magically crossed paths between your life and the horoscope you read, think again — the Forer Effect is in action.

Image source: (xx)

El efecto Forer

Por favor, lee con atención este párrafo, y piensa si crees que lo que dice se adapta en mayor o menor medida a tu personalidad:

Tienes la necesidad de que otras personas te aprecien y admiren, y sin embargo eres crítico contigo mismo. Aunque tienes algunas debilidades en tu personalidad, generalmente eres capaz de compensarlas. Tienes una considerable capacidad sin usar que no has aprovechado. Tiendes a ser disciplinado y controlado por el exterior pero preocupado e inseguro por dentro. A veces tienes serias dudas sobre si has obrado bien o tomado las decisiones correctas. Prefieres una cierta cantidad de cambios y variedad y te sientes defraudado cuando te ves rodeado de restricciones y limitaciones. También estás orgulloso de ser un pensador independiente; y de no aceptar las afirmaciones de los otros sin pruebas suficientes. Pero encuentras poco sabio el ser muy franco en revelarte a los otros. A veces eres extrovertido, afable, y sociable, mientras que otras veces eres introvertido, precavido y reservado. Algunas de tus aspiraciones tienden a ser bastante irrealistas.

En 1948, un psicólogo llamado Bertram R. Forer hizo un experimento con sus alumnos. Cada uno de ellos realizó un test de personalidad y una vez corregido por el profesor, este les dio una hoja con el resultado individual de cada uno. Luego se les pidió que valoraran el resultado del test, en una escala del 1 (muy pobre) al 5 (excelente), en función de como consideraran de acertado el análisis. El resultado fue un promedio de 4.2, es decir, en general todos estaban de acuerdo con la descripción de su personalidad que habían recibido. El párrafo que has leído antes fue la descripción que recibieron TODOS los alumno que formaron parte del experimento, independientemente de los resultados del test de personalidad. Y todos estaban conformes con la descripción, aunque estaba claro que era imposible que todos tuvieran la misma personalidad. 
Lo que ocurrió, se denominó como el Efecto Forer, también denominado Efecto Barnum o Falacia de la Validación Personal) y es la observación de que los individuos dan altos índices de acierto a descripciones de su personalidad que supuestamente han sido realizadas específicamente para ellos, pero que en realidad son generales y suficientemente vagas como para poder ser aplicadas a un amplio espectro de gente. 
Esto es lo que ocurre por ejemplo, en los horóscopos (de hecho, el párrafo del experimento fue construido a partir de descripciones de todos los horóscopos), se les da a la gente una serie de afirmaciones generales y muy poco específicas con las que puede sentirse identificado cualquiera: “Puedes ser tímido, pero eres muy abierto con tus amigos” o “Eres alguien que le gusta luchar por lo que quiere”. 
También suele ocurrir que estas descripciones suelen tener más mensajes positivos que negativos ¿y por qué? Por algo que Barnum definió como el “sesgo de auto-servicio”, en otras palabras, la gente solo acepta como rasgos propios los rasgos positivos y deseables, mientras que rechaza a los que considera como negativos.
Comparto esto para que podamos ser un poco más críticos, sobre todo con esa enorme cantidad de “Tests de Personalidad” (Guiño guiño) que inundan la red, y sobre todo en Facebook. Están graciosos sí, pero su ajuste a la realidad no es más que la ilusión de sentirse identificado con una descripción que nos agrada y que nos aporta coherencia cognitiva a nuestra vida. 


Si de verdad queréis un instrumento que haga un análisis de vuestra personalidad contratad los servicios de un psicólogo, los cuales, entre otras cosas, están capacitados para estudiar las diversas dimensiones de la conducta humana, entre ellas, la Personalidad mediante el uso de diversas técnicas e instrumentos cualificados y diseñados para dicha tarea.

Que sí que sí, que te tocó Tyrion en ese test para ver que personaje de GoT eras…

Por qué odio el horóscopo y la astrología:

Según el horóscopo, soy Cáncer. Ni puta idea de mi ascendente, prefiero vivir al límite y no saberlo. Me gusta el riesgo, la cuerda floja. Lo malo es que me llevo fatal con los Leo. Y con los Acuario. Y con los Escorpio. De hecho, me llevo fatal con cualquiera que me diga su signo astrológico. Me llevo mal con todos.

Leed esta definición, y honestamente, valorad de 0 a 5 si es “Muy desacertada” (0) o “Muy acertada” (5).

Tienes la necesidad de que otras personas te aprecien y admiren, y sin embargo eres crítico contigo mismo. Aunque tienes algunas debilidades en tu personalidad, generalmente eres capaz de compensarlas. Tienes una considerable capacidad sin usar que no has aprovechado. Tiendes a ser disciplinado y controlado por el exterior pero preocupado e inseguro por dentro. A veces tienes serias dudas sobre si has obrado bien o tomado las decisiones correctas. Prefieres una cierta cantidad de cambios y variedad y te sientes defraudado cuando te ves rodeado de restricciones y limitaciones. También estás orgulloso de ser un pensador independiente; y de no aceptar las afirmaciones de los otros sin pruebas suficientes. Pero encuentras poco sabio el ser muy franco en revelarte a los otros. A veces eres extrovertido, afable, y sociable, mientras que otras veces eres introvertido, precavido y reservado. Algunas de tus aspiraciones tienden a ser bastante irrealistas.

En teoría, deberías haber elegido un valor entre 4 y 5. El psicólogo Bertram Forer le ofreció este texto a cada uno de sus alumnos, sin decirles que todos tenían el mismo. Les dijo que eran los resultados de un test de personalidad individual, pero lo había sacado del horóscopo del periódico del día anterior. La nota media fue un 4,26. El experimento se ha repetido varias veces y el resultado siempre ronda el 4,2. A esto se le llama “Efecto Forer” o “Falacia de Validación Personal” y básicamente consiste en “la observación de que los individuos dan aprobación de alta precisión a descripciones de su personalidad que supuestamente han sido realizadas específicamente para ellos, pero que en realidad son generales y lo suficientemente vagas como para ser aplicadas a un amplio espectro de gente”.

El texto completo lo podéis encontrar aquí (es sublime). Os recomiendo al 100% el blog del texto: Memorias del gato.

io ti conosco e ti dico chi sei:

Caro lettore, oggi voglio confidarti una cosa: io ti conosco. Sì, dico proprio a te. Tu che stai leggendo. Questo articolo è solo per te. Lo so che sei spesso critico nei confronti di te stesso eppure hai molto bisogno che gli altri ti apprezzino. Pur avendo alcune debolezze nel carattere, sei generalmente in grado di porvi rimedio. Hai molte capacità inutilizzate che non hai ancora volto a tuo vantaggio. Disciplinato e controllato all’esterno, tendi ad essere preoccupato ed insicuro dentro di te. A volte dubiti seriamente di aver preso la giusta decisione o di aver fatto la cosa giusta. Preferisci una certa dose di cambiamento e varietà e ti senti insoddisfatto se obbligato a restrizioni e limitazioni. Lo so che ti vanti di essere indipendente nelle tue idee e di non accettare le opinioni degli altri senza una prova che ti soddisfi. Ma hai scoperto che è imprudente essere troppo sinceri nel rivelarsi agli altri. A volte sei estroverso, affabile, socievole, mentre altre volte sei introverso, diffidente e riservato. Che ne pensi? Ti conosco bene, vero? Eppure no, in verità non ti conosco. Quello che ho fatto è descrivere un profilo generico che possa andare bene per un numero ampio di persone. Si chiama “Effetto Barnum”. Ed è quello che utilizzano gli astrologi, i cartomanti, maghi, indovini e fantomatici veggenti. È un tipico esempio di manipolazione psicologica. Attenzione quindi, perché una cosa è essere manipolati dall’amore altra è essere manipolati da ciarlatani.

Per approfondire: http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effetto_Forer

Forer effect

"You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept others’ statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic."

you think it fits with your personality? yes? well it shouldn’t surprise you. This paragraph is an example of the Forer effect, in which very general and vague personality statements are used that could fit with many people. Forer was a psychologist who attempted to explore human gullibility and their tendency to desire that claims about themselves are true. Forer took statements from an astrology column and gave their students a personality test, ignored their answers, and then he gave each student the above evaluation. The average rating of accuracy the students gave to the evaluation was 4.26 of 5. This seems to explain why many people believe that pseudosciences work, like astrology, graphology, etc.
http://skepdic.com/forer.html

En (helt vanlig?) dag i praksis

Å kalle meg en morgenfugl er en overdrivelse, men prøver å være på Aker en gang mellom 8.15 og 9. Godt humør er likevel alltid på plass, og blir ikke noe dårligere når denne gjengen ønsker god morgen:

God næring er viktig og frokosten inntas på kontoret. Uten mat og drikke duger praksisstudenten ikke.  

Hva som skjer videre hver dag er likevel høyst varierende. Å jobbe i et prosjekt innebærer at dagene blir ulike, noe jeg setter stor pris på. Da Thea og jeg har hatt hovedansvar for Modul 1 har vi naturlig nok jobbet mye sammen, og jeg kunne ikke bedt om en bedre samarbeidspartner, for ei dyktig og grei jente! Forer oss med is og godis og sørger for god stemning: 

Vi samarbeider selvfølgelig tett med vår praksisveileder, og har hatt små og store updatemøter så og si daglig for å drive modulen og prosjektet fremover og sørge for at vi ikke misforstår eller gjør unødvendig arbeid. Dagene har dermed (som beskrevet i tidligere innlegg) bestått av alt fra å dra på handletur, ta bilder, lage film, kurs, møter, observasjon, besøk på helsestasjon, blogging, og sist men ikke minst så fikk vi ansvar for å ferdigstille og samkjøre alt materiale til modul 1 som praksisveileder hadde gjort forarbeidet med. Dette viste seg å bli en for stor jobb for bare oss to, så med god hjelp fra Åsne og Peter fikk vi renskrevet fire lærertemplater, laget fire tilhørende power points samt utarbeidet et deltakerhefte. 

Vi har også renskrevet og ferdigstilt evalueringsverktøy med utgangspunkt i materiale fra Laura. Vi gikk oss litt vill, men med god hjelp fra kollega Heidi som holdt oss i ørene og brukte sin kunnskap om SAM-verktøyet så ordnet også det seg. 

Felles lunsj hører alltid med, morsomt å snakke om løst og fast med hyggelige kolleger.

Arbeidsdagen varer stort sett til en gang mellom 16 og 17, men de siste dagene før modul 1 skulle innleveres så ble det noen lange dager og fredagskvelden ble tilbrakt på kontoret. Mye stress der og da, men veldig lærerikt i ettertid. Med tre pc´er gikk likevel arbeidet som en lek..  

  1. You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.
  2. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.
  3. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage.
  4. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them.
  5. Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you.
  6. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside.
  7. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.
  8. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.
  9. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others’ statements without satisfactory proof.
  10. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others.
  11. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved.
  12. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.
  13. Security is one of your major goals in life.

"In 1948, psychologist Bertram R. Forer gave a personality test to his students. He told his students they were each receiving a unique personality analysis that was based on the test’s results and to rate their analysis on how well it applied to themselves. In reality, each received the same sketch, consisting of the following items."

chantillyxlacey asked:

If you could take one element of any fictional universe and apply it to real life, what would you choose and why?

In The Stainless Steel Rat Gets Drafted there’s a planet Jim ends up on that is overseen by an intelligent computer - Mark Forer- and instead of money people are credited for their work hours (wirrs) which are filed in a central computer and held at a specific rate to avoid inflation. Prices of items are likewise held in place. Since a lot of the work is automated and just needs human monitoring, it’s possible to work three days a week to live comfortably (and you can work longer if you want to save up for extra stuff.) There are public tramlines between cities and within large cities, and for local travel people use bikes. There’s lots of land to farm and machine assisted green techniques. Education and healthcare are provided. I would either like to see this system instituted or I’d like to take everyone we love to the planet; either would be good.