+++ Best Forex Signal : Dollar not too fussed but Treasury yields are dropping after US GDP
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US 10’s are currently trading at 1.667% -8bp on the day after falling as low as 1.663%. Break even 10’y are up 1bp at 1.64% US 30’s dropped to 2.256% and are now at 2.257%.
The buck is falling but it’s no collapse as it trades down to 117.40.
The GDP numbers are still puzzling me somewhat as those consumption numbers just seem very high. A huge chunk of that is made up of household spending but we’ve not really seen that in the monthly data. Falling gasoline prices could have had a big effect but I’m still wary.
Business investment dropped in Q4 and spending on equipment was down 1.9% vs +8.9% in Q3 and the biggest contraction since Q2 2009. Total investment was +1.9% vs +8.9% in Q3
Exports came in at 2.8% vs 4.5% prior while imports were 8.9% vs -0.9% prior.
The change in inventories to 113.1bn vs 82.2 bn in Q3 added 0.82% to GDP and came more on businesses restocking.
Elsewhere government spending remained sluggish with overall spending -2.2% vs +4.4% prior. Federal spend dropped to -7.5% vs +9.9% prior
Q4 2014 GDP details 30 01 2015
It’s another sign of an economy going at two speeds. Seemingly the consumer sector is booming and the rest is just muddling along. I’ll assume that everyone in America is driving along in bright shiny new cars, living in modern re-developed houses and lighting cigars with $50 notes taken from their $100k salaries.
Oh to live the American dream
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